工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon price is expected to remain in high-level consolidation in the short term, and continuous attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - The polysilicon price is volatile and likely to rise, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro sentiment [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.25% to 8,495 yuan/ton [1] - Supply and Demand: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start-up, resulting in a steady increase in supply. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plant enterprises have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and the price may be under pressure again. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1] Polysilicon - Price Information: The price of N-type dense material remained flat at 48 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material remained flat at 49 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, and the price of N-type granular silicon remained flat at 46 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 5.51% to 52,285 yuan/ton [1] - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month-on-month. On the demand side, based on the current latest polysilicon price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The terminal's acceptance of high prices is low, and the overseas component export tax refund stockpiling is basically completed, and the components continue to weaken [1] Other Information - SMM research shows that affected by the recent self-discipline of the polysilicon industry and market transactions, the quotations of domestic leading polysilicon enterprises have been raised, with the mainstream quotation of rod-shaped silicon rising to 55 yuan/kg and the quotation of granular silicon at 49 yuan/kg. The subsequent transaction situation needs further observation [1] - On August 27, 2025, witnessed by Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly, JA Solar signed an investment agreement with Egyptian AHG, UAE Global South Utilities, and Bahrain Infinity Capital. JA Solar plans to invest $220 million (about 1.57 billion yuan) to build a 2GW solar cell factory, a 2GW solar module factory, and a 1GWh energy storage system factory in Egypt, with a planned construction period of three years [1]