Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is good, but the prices of finished steel products have declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be monitored [4]. - The prices of iron ore futures have declined. In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments have increased, and the recent arrivals at ports have also increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production has decreased, and the profitability of steel mills has continued to decline. The inventory at ports has decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has also decreased. Overall, the short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon futures have declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market has receded, and the prices are moving closer to the fundamentals. The supply of manganese - silicon is increasing, and its price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand and relevant policies [10][12]. - The price of industrial silicon futures is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a short - term range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton. The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not been fundamentally resolved. The supply is increasing, while the demand support is limited. The price of polysilicon futures is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and uncertainty, and may continue to rise if positive news continues to be released [15][17]. - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it will follow the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase may be limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - Futures Market: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3115 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.809%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts are 210,938 tons, a net increase of 12,041 tons. The main contract position is 1.633714 million lots, an increase of 578,004 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3303 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-1.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts are 24,760 tons, with no change. The main contract position is 1.195204 million lots, an increase of 28,571 lots [3]. - Spot Market: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin is 3210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it is 3250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong is 3340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it is 3350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: The production of rebar has increased, the demand has slightly recovered but remains weak overall, and the inventory continues to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have declined, and the inventory has continued to increase [4]. Iron Ore - Futures Market: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 766.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.73% (-21.50), and the position changed by -19,658 lots to 454,000 lots. The weighted position is 754,600 lots [6]. - Spot Market: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port is 765 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.51 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.72% [6]. - Fundamentals: The overseas iron ore shipments have increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The shipments from non - mainstream countries have also increased, and the recent arrivals at ports have increased. The daily average hot metal production has decreased, and the profitability of steel mills has continued to decline. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has also decreased [7]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Futures Market: On September 1st, the manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed down 0.97% at 5736 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.61% at 5532 yuan/ton [9][10]. - Fundamentals: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market has receded, and the prices are moving closer to the fundamentals. The supply of manganese - silicon is increasing, and its price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand and relevant policies [10][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Futures Market: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8495 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+105). The weighted contract position changed by -20,685 lots to 503,690 lots [14]. - Spot Market: The market price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China is 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of 421 is 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract is 455 yuan/ton and 105 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - Fundamentals: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not been fundamentally resolved. The supply is increasing, while the demand support is limited. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [15]. - Polysilicon - Futures Market: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,285 yuan/ton, up 5.51% (+2730). The weighted contract position changed by +5752 lots to 326,559 lots [16]. - Spot Market: The average price of N - type granular silicon is 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material is 48 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material is 49 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract is -3285 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamentals: It is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply is increasing, the production of silicon wafers has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased. The price is highly volatile and uncertain, and may continue to rise if positive news continues to be released [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Spot Market: The spot price in Shahe is 1134 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Central China is 1070 yuan, unchanged [19]. - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes (-1.63%) from the previous period, and a decrease of 11.31% year - on - year [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it will follow the macro - sentiment [19]. - Soda Ash - Spot Market: The spot price is 1165 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous day [20]. - Inventory: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8193 million tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons (-2.58%) from last Thursday [20]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase may be limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [20].
黑色建材日报-20250902
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-02 01:07