宝城期货国债期货早报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is that they will be in a state of shock consolidation in the short - term. The short - term view for TL2509 is shock, with an intraday view of shock - weakening, and the mid - term view is shock. For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - weakening, the mid - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the variety TL2509, the short - term view is shock, the mid - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weakening, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - Yesterday, all Treasury bond futures rebounded with shocks. Due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of market interest rates is limited, providing support for Treasury bond futures. The latest PMI data shows that the macro - economy has some resilience but still needs policy support, and the future monetary policy environment is generally loose. In the short term, there is no need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the focus is on structural easing to support technology and boost consumption. Recently, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has been rising, greatly reducing the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate, and there is still room for an interest rate cut in the future. However, from the perspective of the capital side, the risk appetite in the stock market is strong, which has a siphoning effect on funds, suppressing the demand for bond purchases. Therefore, the rebound space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5].