国新国证期货早报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 1, 2025 - A - shares opened September with gains, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to 12828.95, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.29% to 2956.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 2750 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4523.71, up 26.95 [2] 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - The coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1597.5, down 57.1 [3] - The coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1117.2 yuan, down 37.5 [4] - The palm oil futures rebounded after stopping the decline, with the main contract P2601 closing at 9384, up 0.73%. As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 16,500 tons or 2.77% [8] - The asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up 1% at 3540 yuan. Last week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and shipments increased slightly [9] 2.2 Agricultural Futures - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated slightly higher. Large speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 2224 lots to 132,813 lots as of August 26 [5] - The Shanghai rubber oscillated. Affected by the planned zero - tariff rubber trade via the Mekong River channel between China and Thailand in September and other factors, the first pilot project will start in September 2025, with an expected increase in export volume [6] - The CBOT soybean futures were closed for the Labor Day holiday. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with the M2601 main contract closing at 3054 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [7] - The live hog futures oscillated, with the LH2511 main contract closing at 13,625 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The terminal demand is showing signs of recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large [7] - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,085 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 194 lots, and some areas in Xinjiang began manual harvesting [9] 2.3 Metal Futures - The Shanghai copper price was driven up. The domestic inventory decline provided support, and the Yangshan copper premium reached a new high since June 5 [8] - The iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and fell 2.67% to 766 yuan. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased last week, and the market sentiment weakened [9] - The log 2511 contract opened at 820, closed at 818.5, and decreased positions by 353 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat, and the external price increase drove up the domestic futures price [9][10] - The rebar rb2601 closed at 3115 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil hc2601 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rebar market was weak, with increasing supply pressure and uncertain demand improvement [10] - The alumina ao2601 closed at 3008 yuan/ton. The ore price has support, but the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus [11] - The Shanghai aluminum al2510 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton. The aluminum price remained firm under the background of expected interest rate cuts and demand recovery [11] 3. Influencing Factors and Outlook - For coke and coking coal, factors such as production restrictions in coking plants, iron water production, and inventory changes affect prices [5] - For sugar, the change in large speculators' positions and the trend of US sugar prices are important factors [5] - For rubber, the zero - tariff trade policy between China and Thailand is a major positive factor [6] - For soybean meal, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports are the focus [7] - For live hogs, the supply and demand situation in the fourth quarter and the market demand are key points [7] - For copper, US non - farm data and China's August PMI data will affect the price trend [8] - For iron ore, the short - term market is affected by production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] - For asphalt, the demand in the peak season is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate in the short term [9] - For log, the price is affected by external prices, supply - demand relationship, and market sentiment [10] - For rebar, the supply - demand contradiction and cost factors affect the price, and it will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [10] - For alumina, factors such as ore mining, cost, and inventory affect the price [11] - For aluminum, the Fed's interest rate decision and demand improvement are important factors [11]