中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term stop - falling and consolidation for soybean meal, rapeseed meal [2][3][4][5][6] - Short - term adjustment for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [2][7][8] - Cautious bullish for cotton, jujube, and live pigs [2][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Weekend ProFarmer's final U.S. soybean yield survey estimated a yield of 53 bushels, lower than the U.S. Department of Agriculture's August forecast, which is bullish. U.S. soybean regions have lower - than - normal rainfall. Recently, soybean meal has stopped falling and shows signs of a technical rebound, but the approaching U.S. soybean harvest may limit the rebound space. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with improved China - Australia trade, have cooled market speculation [2][3][4]. - As of August 29, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 9.056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 158,000 tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.9685 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 143,200 tons, or 2.10%. Soybean meal inventory was 1.0788 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,500 tons, or 2.42% [4]. Rapeseed Meal - New - crop Canadian rapeseed harvesting has begun, which restrains market bullish speculation. Rapeseed meal rebounded slightly the day before. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - Australia relations and whether Canada intends to improve the situation regarding China's anti - dumping results [2][5][6]. - As of August 29, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 129,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,000 tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 25,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons; unexecuted contracts were 60,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies are bullish for palm oil market consumption expectations, and China and India have purchasing needs. Fundamentally, the outlook is positive, and a strategy of going long on dips is recommended. However, Indonesia's potential zero - tariff export of palm oil to the U.S. has led to recent price adjustments. But Malaysia's good palm oil export data in August means caution is needed when short - selling [2][7][8]. - As of August 29, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, or 4.81%; a year - on - year increase of 16,500 tons, or 2.77% [8]. Cotton - In the short term, the improvement of U.S. cotton soil moisture is bearish for the market, and the demand side still faces a shortage. However, the international cotton price valuation is low, and there are opportunities to go long on pullbacks. In China, based on the current depletion rate of cotton commercial inventory and import expectations, the tight supply situation before the new cotton harvest still exists. The good pre - sale of new cotton this year means there is a possibility of local small - scale抢购 in areas with high production capacity, which still supports the market in the short term. With the start of the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking season, the operating rate and orders are gradually improving, but the growth momentum has weakened. A strategy of going long on dips is recommended [2][9][10][11][12]. Jujube - It is initially estimated that the expected total output of Xinjiang Southern Xinjiang gray jujube in the 2025/26 season will be in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons. The reduction in production is a foregone conclusion, but the reduction amplitude is likely to be less than the 350,000 tons in the 2023/24 season. There is pressure when combined with carry - over inventory. In the short term, increased rainfall in some areas of Aksu and Alar in the main production areas may lead to quality speculation, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand. A strategy of going long on dips is still recommended [2][13][14]. Live Pigs - In the short term, the smooth slaughter rhythm of the breeding end, the selling pressure of second - fattened pigs, and the accelerated slaughter rhythm in August still put pressure on the spot market, and the futures market needs short - term adjustment. In the medium and long term, the inventory scale remains high, but the production capacity is gradually being reduced, and the profit side also supports this reduction. As demand recovers, the market will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming in the future. The current valuation is relatively low, so short - selling is not recommended in the short term, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [2][15][16][17].