养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The weak reality is reflected in high inventory and slow sales in the spot market, while the strong expectation lies in fewer purchases in the fourth quarter and export drivers. However, the expectation is fluctuating, leading to an unstable upward trend in prices. The short - term long - term view remains bullish, and for Y2601, it is advisable to go long around 8300 - 8310, with a pressure level at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [4]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed purchases. Increased imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially offset the supply. The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 1990 tons year - on - year. The price is under pressure in the short - term, with a support level at 9580 - 9698 and a pressure level at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - From August 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, and the export increased by 10.22% month - on - month. The decline in US soybean oil prices exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. The price adjustment space is limited, with a support level at 9074 - 9100 and a pressure level at 9736 - 9998 [5]. - For soybean meal and soybean No. 2, the weak supply reality restricts the price increase. The expected increase in South American soybean imports weakens the strong supply expectation in the fourth quarter. Due to the fluctuating Sino - US trade relations, the prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are volatile. It is advisable to wait and see for now [5]. - For rapeseed meal, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the purchase of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease. The low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal squeezes the consumption of rapeseed meal. The price is expected to adjust downward, with a support level at 2400 - 2438 and a pressure level at 2632 - 2698 [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the external market is under pressure from the phased listing of South American corn and the expected high yield of US corn. The domestic market is also under pressure from continuous imports. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For corn 11 contract, the support is at 2100 - 2120, and the pressure is at 2240 - 2250. For options, consider selling a wide - straddle combination or out - of - the - money call options [6]. - For soybean No. 1, the low - level supply of old soybeans and the continuous supply of reserve soybeans ensure the market supply. With the upcoming new soybeans, the supply is expected to increase. The demand is mainly rigid. It is not recommended to chase long, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The pressure level for the 11 - contract is at 4145 - 4150, and the support is at 3850 - 3900 [7]. - The planting area of new peanuts has increased by 4.01% year - on - year, with an expected increase in production. The price is under pressure, but the downward space is narrowing. It is advisable to reduce short positions [8]. - For live pigs, the spot price rebounded this week. The slaughter volume is increasing, and the phased supply pressure is rising. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium to the spot price. For the 11 - contract, the reference range is 13500 - 14500 points. Mid - term, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - For eggs, the futures price rebounded and then fell. The spot price has stabilized and rebounded in some areas. The futures - spot price difference is converging. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 1. Market Analysis - Various products in the feed, breeding, and oil sectors are in a state of volatile adjustment. For example, soybean No. 1 11 - contract, soybean No. 2 11 - contract, peanut 11 - contract, etc. are all expected to fluctuate. For energy and by - product sectors such as corn 11 - contract and starch 11 - contract, they are in a low - level volatile state, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For the breeding sector, the live pig 11 - contract is expected to rebound, and it is advisable to hold long positions [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - In the cross - period arbitrage, for most products, it is advisable to wait and see, such as soybean No. 1 9 - 1, soybean No. 2 9 - 1, etc. However, for the soybean meal 3 - 5 contract, it is recommended to conduct a long - spread arbitrage, with a target range of 300 - 400. In the cross - variety arbitrage, for some products, different strategies are recommended, such as short - term bearish operation for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - term bullish operation for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14][15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products in the feed, breeding, and oil sectors, including soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanut, etc. [16] Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [18][19]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the inventory of rapeseeds in coastal oil mills [20][21]. 2. Feed - Daily Data: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [21]. - Weekly Data: The data on corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises, are presented [22]. 3. Breeding - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [23][25][27] Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report provides a series of charts on the breeding end (live pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils, and feed end, including futures and spot prices, production, consumption, inventory, and other data trends [29][39][55] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options are presented [73][74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse receipt data of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]