方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: The production rhythm in Brazil has improved in the first half of August, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, which is bearish for raw sugar. However, concerns about weather and domestic consumption improvement provide support. In China, import pressure is being realized, but the low inventory pressure of sugar - making enterprises and the warming up of transactions limit the downside space of the 2601 contract [3]. - Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp: The pulp industry chain shows few positive signs. Supply pressure remains, and demand improvement is limited. The price has no strong upward drive, but the low valuation provides some support [4]. - Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton: The external market is in a long - short game, and the domestic market is affected by rumors of state reserve sales. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [6]. - Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple: The opening price of early - maturing apples has increased year - on - year, and concerns about the excellent fruit rate support the futures price [7]. - Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube: The inventory of jujubes is being depleted, and the market is moving towards the peak season. The futures price of the 2601 contract is affected by multiple factors, and investors can adopt different strategies according to their risk preferences [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2510, the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take a short - term long position due to the increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples and concerns about the excellent fruit rate. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce long positions as the commodity sentiment is strong and the third - quarter is the production - forming period, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [17]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce short positions as the estimated production in Brazil is lowered, and the downside space of the futures price is limited. The support range is 5530 - 5550, and the pressure range is 5630 - 5650. For Pulp 2511, the recommended strategy is to be bearish in the range because the coniferous pulp price is below the cost, but the supply pressure remains, and the price of finished paper is low. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5200 - 5300. For Cotton 2601, the recommended strategy is to return to a wait - and - see state as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rumor of state reserve sales lead to short - term price fluctuations [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In July, China's fresh apple export volume was about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. The estimated national apple production is expected to decrease by 2.03% according to one survey and increase by 2.35% according to another [18]. - Spot Market Situation: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area is stable. In the northwest production area, the early - maturing Fuji is priced high, and the quality is good, with active procurement by merchants. In the sales area, the arrival of goods has increased significantly, and the price is stable [19][20]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The temperature in the main jujube - producing areas in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, and some areas have experienced light rain. The daily arrival of goods in the sales area has decreased. The price of high - quality jujubes is strong, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable. The sample - point physical inventory has decreased [21]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The ISO reports that the 2025/26 sugar season will have a supply gap of only 23,100 tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of August has increased significantly year - on - year. In China, the spot price of sugar in different regions is reported [24][25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported radiata pine has been reduced by $20 per ton, while most suppliers keep the price of coniferous pulp unchanged. Suzano has increased the price of broad - leaf pulp for September orders [27]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market In July 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports and yarn exports have increased. Argentina's cotton exports have decreased in July, and the cumulative exports in the 2024/25 season have decreased year - on - year [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review The daily closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are reported [29][30]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are reported [32]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description about the basis situation, only figure references are provided [43][44][46]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton are in a state of oscillation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [49]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description, only figure references are provided [56][57][59]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are reported [76]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description, only figure references are provided [78][80][81].