软商品日报：巴基斯坦洪水引发产量担忧，棉花短期震荡-20250902

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Sugar demand has a seasonal increase due to summer cold - drink consumption, and recent sugar imports have risen significantly driven by the expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range. Meanwhile, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may impact sugar production and requires continuous monitoring. [1][3] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, with some parts of Xinjiang entering the boll - opening stage, and the overall growth progress is ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5910.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5825.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 16.34 with a change of 0.00%. US cotton closed at 66.53 with a change of 0.00% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 13434.0, with a change of - 3.46%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 6320.0, with a change of - 2.98% [2] Data Quick View External Market Quotations - US sugar price remained at 16.34 from August 31 to September 1, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. US cotton price remained at 66.53, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price decreased from 5960.0 to 5910.0 from August 29 to September 1, 2025, a decline of - 0.84%. Kunming sugar spot price remained at 5825.0, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton Index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, a change of 0.99%. Xinjiang cotton spot price remained at 15250.0, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 spread increased from 37.0 to 39.0, a gain of 5.41%. SR05 - 09 spread decreased from - 24.0 to - 53.0, a change of 120.83%. SR09 - 01 spread changed from - 13.0 to 14.0, a change of - 207.69%. CF01 - 05 spread increased from 40.0 to 60.0, a gain of 50.00%. CF05 - 09 spread decreased from 410.0 to 370.0, a decline of - 9.76%. CF09 - 01 spread changed from - 450.0 to - 430.0, a decline of - 4.44% [4] Basis - Sugar 01 basis decreased from 221.0 to 216.0, a decline of - 2.26%. Sugar 05 basis decreased from 258.0 to 255.0, a decline of - 1.16%. Sugar 09 basis decreased from 234.0 to 202.0, a decline of - 13.68%. Cotton 01 basis increased from 1088.0 to 1454.0, a gain of 33.64%. Cotton 05 basis increased from 1128.0 to 1514.0, a gain of 34.22%. Cotton 09 basis increased from 1538.0 to 1884.0, a gain of 22.50% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA price remained at 78.7 from August 29 to September 1, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit remained at 1493.0 from August 29 to September 1, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - SR601C5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0837, and the underlying futures is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.36. SR601P5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0824. CF601C14000 has an implied volatility of 0.1217, and the underlying futures is CF601 with a historical volatility of 6.63. CF601P14000 has an implied volatility of 0.1196 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 13916.0 to 13434.0 from August 29 to September 1, 2025, a decline of - 3.46%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6514.0 to 6320.0, a decline of - 2.98% [4]