有色金属日报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term macro atmosphere for the non - ferrous metals sector is positive, with a high probability of Fed rate cuts, which is expected to drive the overall strength of non - ferrous metals. However, different metals have different price trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. For example, copper and lead are expected to be oscillating strongly, zinc is likely to be in a low - level oscillation, tin is expected to oscillate, nickel may strengthen in stages, and aluminum and stainless steel may rise with the approach of the peak season [1][5][7][8][10][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.31% to $9,875/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,660 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 25 to 158,875 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons (SMM caliber), while the bonded area inventory slightly decreased. - Outlook: The short - term copper price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 79,000 - 80,200 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9,800 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum slightly rose to $2,619/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,690 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The domestic main consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 62.3 million tons, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 14.3 million tons. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to be supported. If the inventory inflection point appears, there will be stronger upward momentum. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2,590 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: The SHFE lead index closed down 0.15% to 16,857 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,990.5/ton. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.58 million tons. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to be strong as the supply margin narrows and the non - ferrous metals sector atmosphere is positive [5]. Zinc - Price: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.13% to 22,168 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,830/ton. - Inventory: The zinc ingot social inventory continued to increase rapidly to 14.63 million tons. - Outlook: There is a divergence between the macro background and industrial status. The short - term decline space is limited, and it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [7]. Tin - Supply: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, and the shortage of tin mines in Yunnan is still severe. The production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month. - Demand: The downstream is in the consumption off - season, and the traditional consumption areas are weak. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply decline is obvious while the demand is weak [8]. Nickel - Resources: The nickel ore price is expected to remain stable. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is relatively sufficient, and the iron mills' acceptance of nickel ore prices is okay. - Nickel iron: The supply increase is limited, and the demand is supported by the expected increase in stainless steel production in August and September. - Intermediate products: The market circulation of spot is tight, and the price is expected to be strong. - Outlook: The nickel price has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on dips. The SHFE nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [9][10]. Carbonate Lithium - Price: The MMLC late - session index fell 0.35% to 76,816 yuan. - Outlook: The market is in a weak adjustment. The risk of a sharp decline in lithium prices is small. The LC2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 73,500 - 78,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.86% to 3,005 yuan/ton. - Outlook: After a sharp decline, the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,900 - 3,300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan/ton, up 1.05%. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.81% to 108.3 million tons. - Outlook: With the approach of the peak season, the actual consumption of stainless steel is expected to increase [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed down 0.37% to 20,275 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 3.37 million tons. - Outlook: The price is expected to run at a high level in the short term as the downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported [19].