Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish Dominance: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol (MEG), urea [27][30][34][41] - Bearish Dominance: Crude oil, LPG, PVC, methanol [1][23][37] - Sideways with Bearish Bias: L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [14][19][3] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause price fluctuations, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, and the price has a large downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][4][5] - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - side oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for downward compression. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][8][11] - L: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [14][17] - PP: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply is still under pressure in the medium term, and the upward drive is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, providing some support. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities [19][21] - PVC: The cost support is insufficient, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space of the disk is limited [23][25] - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options [27][28][29] - PTA: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in the operating load. Later, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [30][32][33] - MEG: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [34][35][36] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels [37][38][40] - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] - Asphalt: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - Glass: The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with Brent rising 0.99% and SC rising 0.14%. WTI had no quote due to the holiday [4] - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, the demand support for oil prices weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, while India's crude oil imports decreased. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the strategic reserve increased [5][6] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. It is recommended to try short positions lightly and focus on the SC range of [485 - 495] [7] LPG - Market Review: On September 1, the PG main contract closed at 4364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4486, and 4580 yuan/ton respectively [10] - Basic Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG itself is not significant, and its price is mainly linked to the cost - side oil price. The geopolitical risk has increased, but the cost side still has downward space. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased, and the port inventory has decreased [11] - Strategy Recommendation: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to move down. It is recommended to hold short positions and focus on the PG range of [4370 - 4470] [12] L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan. The North China Ningxia Coal price was 7190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [16] - Basic Logic: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the peak season approaches in September, the supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some devices are planned to restart, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to try to go long on dips and focus on the L range of [7200 - 7350] [17] PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The East China drawn wire market price was 6895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1205 [20] - Basic Logic: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Recent device restarts and new capacity releases will increase the supply pressure. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply - demand pattern is still loose in the medium term, and the high number of warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Given the low absolute price, it is recommended to try short - term long positions on dips and focus on the PP range of [6900 - 7000] [21] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan. The Changzhou spot price was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [24] - Basic Logic: The cost of chlor - alkali is not well - supported, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. Some enterprises' maintenance has ended, and the export to India is expected to slow down [25] - Strategy Recommendation: The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space is limited. Focus on the V range of [4800 - 4950] [25] PX - Market Review: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [28] - Basic Logic: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The PXN spread is at a relatively high level this year, and the gasoline cracking spread has increased. The demand has weakened but is expected to improve. The PX inventory has decreased but is still relatively high [28] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to hold long positions, look for opportunities to buy on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the PX511 range of [6820 - 6950] [29] PTA - Market Review: On August 29, the PTA price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The spot price and basis both weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [31] - Basic Logic: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand is improving, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. The PTA inventory has decreased slightly but is still relatively high [32] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the TA01 range of [4750 - 4810] [33] MEG - Market Review: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [35] - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost support still exists [35] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the EG01 range of [4380 - 4450] [36] Methanol - Market Review: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [37] - Basic Logic: The supply - side pressure has increased as the domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased. The demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The cost support has weakened [38][39] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels. Focus on the MA01 range of [2345 - 2395] [40] Urea - Market Review: The price of the urea contract has changed slightly, and the domestic and international spot prices have been relatively stable [41] - Basic Logic: The urea production is expected to gradually recover in mid - September. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The factory and port inventories have been accumulating [41] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, the long - short game will intensify, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] Asphalt - Core View: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - Basic Logic: The cost - side oil price is expected to decline in the medium - long term, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The spot price in Shandong has decreased significantly, and the basis is at a low level [3] Glass - Core View: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Basic Logic: The deep - processing orders have improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased, but the distributor and factory inventories in Hebei have started to accumulate. The daily melting volume is stable, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Soda Ash - Core View: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Basic Logic: The enterprise inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. The upstream operating rate has declined, and the production is expected to remain high in September. The demand is mostly for rigid needs [3]
中辉能化观点-20250902
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-02 02:00