国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250902

Report Information - Report Date: September 2, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Palm Oil: With no new fundamental drivers, consider buying on dips [2][4]. - Soybean Oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and the market is undergoing a corrective consolidation [2][4]. - Soybean Meal: The market is in a rebound and oscillation phase, waiting for further guidance from US soybeans [2][9]. - Soybean: The market is in a rebound and oscillation phase [2][9]. - Corn: The market is expected to move sideways [2][12]. - Sugar: The market is waiting for news guidance [2][16]. - Cotton: The market is expected to maintain a sideways - to - bullish trend [2][20]. - Eggs: There is strong near - term trading competition [2][25]. - Hogs: The market has seen a price increase on reduced volume, and the sustainability needs to be confirmed [2][27]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][31]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,330 yuan/ton (day session) and 9,482 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.11% and 1.63% increase respectively; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton (day session) and 8,396 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 0.10% and 0.07% change respectively [4]. - News: From January to July 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 1.364 billion tons, a 10.95% year - on - year increase [5]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE豆一2511 closed at 3,965 yuan/ton (day session) and 3,980 yuan/ton (night session), with a + 0.81% and + 0.48% increase respectively; DCE豆粕2601 closed at 3,054 yuan/ton (day session) and 3,066 yuan/ton (night session), with a + 0.23% and + 0.20% increase respectively [9]. - News: Analysts expect US soybean crushing in July 2025 to reach 207.1 million bushels, a record high for the same period [11]. Corn - Fundamental Data: C2509 closed at 2,255 yuan/ton (day session) and 2,280 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.99% and 1.11% increase respectively; C2511 closed at 2,193 yuan/ton (day session) and 2,207 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.27% and 0.64% increase respectively [13]. - News: Northern corn collection port prices remained stable, and Guangdong Shekou prices also showed little change [14]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The original sugar price was 16.34 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,609 yuan/ton [16]. - News: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average [16]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2601 closed at 14,025 yuan/ton (day session) and 14,085 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 1.51% and 0.43% change respectively; CY2511 closed at 20,020 yuan/ton (day session) and 20,065 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 0.60% and 0.22% change respectively [20]. - News: Cotton spot trading was generally weak, and the cotton yarn market also showed a slowdown in sales [21]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg2510 closed at 2,921 yuan/500 kilograms, with a - 0.48% change; Egg2601 closed at 3,320 yuan/500 kilograms, with a 0.00% change [25]. - No significant news provided specifically for eggs in the report. Hogs - Fundamental Data: Henan spot price was 14,230 yuan/ton, Sichuan spot price was 13,650 yuan/ton, and Guangdong spot price was 15,540 yuan/ton; futures prices for different contracts also showed various changes [27]. - News: At the end of August and beginning of September, large - scale hog farms significantly reduced supply, leading to a price rebound. However, supply pressure remains in September and October [29]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: PK510 closed at 8,022 yuan/ton, with a 0.40% increase; PK511 closed at 7,830 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% increase [31]. - News: New peanuts are expected to be listed around mid - to - late September, and the current spot market shows stable to slightly stronger prices in some areas [32].