铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250902

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The international gold price is approaching its previous high, and the domestic stock and bond markets have both risen. The market is optimistic about a September interest rate cut by the Fed, and precious metals are favored as a safe - haven and investment option. Copper prices are expected to remain strongly volatile, aluminum prices are oscillating, and other metals and commodities also show different trends based on their fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3][4]. - The prices of agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc. are also affected by factors like production forecasts, inventory changes, and macro - economic expectations, and are expected to show oscillating trends in the short term [24][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - Metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. have different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest in domestic and international futures markets. For example, SHFE copper closed at 79780 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan, with a trading volume of 150801 lots [28]. 2. Industry Data Perspective - For copper, on September 1st, SHFE copper closed at 79780 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan from August 29th. LME copper closed at 9875 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. Other metals also have detailed data on price changes, inventory, and basis [29][30][31]. 3. Main Variety Views Macro - Overseas: European domestic demand has recovered, with the August manufacturing PMI above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. The unemployment rate in July dropped to a historical low of 6.2%. The US dollar index has fallen, and gold prices are approaching their previous high. Domestically: China's August S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, new orders increased, and the stock market rose with a decrease in trading volume. The bond market also strengthened [2][3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to 3545.8 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.46% to 41.725 dollars/ounce, reaching a nearly 14 - year high. The market is optimistic about a Fed interest rate cut in September, and silver's rise is mainly due to the catch - up logic [4][5]. Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper had a narrow - range oscillation, and LME copper faced resistance after breaking through 9900. The market is affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's preventive interest rate cut expectation and China's economic data. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and short - term copper prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, SHFE aluminum closed at 20690 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. The macro - environment provides some support for metals, but the supply and demand of aluminum are relatively stable, and the market is waiting for more guidance with aluminum prices oscillating [8]. Alumina - On Monday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 3007 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The supply of alumina in the north is excessive, and the inventory in warehouses is increasing, but the planned maintenance in the south provides some support, so alumina is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [10]. Zinc - On Monday, SHFE zinc had a narrow - range oscillation. Affected by the parade, the consumption of zinc is suppressed, but LME de - stocking and refinery maintenance provide support. Short - term zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [11]. Lead - On Monday, SHFE lead had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the social inventory is high, but refinery maintenance in September restricts the decline. Short - term lead prices are difficult to break out of the oscillating pattern [12]. Tin - On Monday, SHFE tin had a narrow - range oscillation. After the market digested the positive news of Yunnan Tin's maintenance, the supply of tin mines is still tight, but the willingness of funds to increase positions is insufficient, and short - term tin prices return to oscillating consolidation [13][14]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is passively shrinking, and the demand side shows different trends. The domestic anti - involution sentiment is repeated, and short - term futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, carbonate lithium oscillated weakly. The supply of lithium salt is high, and the short - term price may decline, but the risk of resource - side disturbances still exists, and the market needs to be vigilant against sentiment fluctuations [17]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated strongly. The macro - expectation boosts nickel prices, but the fundamental support is limited, and the upside space is expected to be limited [18][19]. Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil prices were weak, and then oscillated at a high level at night. The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine situation and OPEC + production policies. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate, and the risk of Russian oil sanctions needs to be watched [20]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are affected by production cuts during the parade, and supply has shrunk. Iron ore arrivals and shipments have increased, and demand has weakened before the parade, but the expected resumption of blast furnaces on September 4th provides support. Steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. The US soybean market was closed for the holiday. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [24][25]. Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil futures rose slightly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is declining month - on - month, and exports are increasing. The Indonesian reference price has increased. The market driving force is limited, and short - term palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [26][27].