新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-2）-20250902

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - CSI 300: Volatile [3] - SSE 50: Upward [3] - CSI 500: Volatile [3] - CSI 1000: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: Volatile and strong [3] - Silver: Volatile and strong [3] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The iron ore market is expected to follow the finished products in high-level volatile adjustments due to limited fundamental contradictions in the short term [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is likely to be volatile and weak as the fundamentals continue to deteriorate [2]. - The rebar market remains in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining relatively high and demand difficult to show counter-seasonal performance [2]. - The glass market has seen a significant cooling of market sentiment, and the short-term supply-demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and increase long positions in stock indices [3]. - The Treasury bond market has shown a weakening trend, and long positions in Treasury bonds should be held lightly [3]. - The gold market is expected to be volatile and strong, with the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy being potential short-term disturbance factors [3]. - The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to consolidate [6]. - The log market is expected to be range-bound, with limited supply pressure and uncertain peak season demand [6]. - The oil and fat market is likely to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean production area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - The meal market is expected to rebound with the support of the external market, and attention should be paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - The live pig market is expected to see a slight increase in prices next week, with support from school start-up demand and cost factors [7]. - The rubber market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by supply shortages and inventory declines [10]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a state of wait-and-see or volatile, with prices mainly following cost fluctuations [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is affected by the steel industry's stable growth policy, with raw material sentiment boosted and prices relatively strong. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it is expected to follow the finished products in high-level volatile adjustments [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are deteriorating, with increasing supply and decreasing demand. The short-term black market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - Rebar: The rebar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, with supply remaining high and demand difficult to improve. The traditional peak season has arrived, but the spot demand is still weak, and the short-term contract is expected to continue to be weak [2]. Non-ferrous and Financial Series - Stock Indices: The stock index market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and increase long positions in stock indices. The market is affected by factors such as the SCO summit and the implementation of the consumer loan subsidy policy [3]. - Treasury Bonds: The Treasury bond market has shown a weakening trend, with market interest rate fluctuations. Long positions in Treasury bonds should be held lightly [3]. - Precious Metals: The gold and silver markets are expected to be volatile and strong, with the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy being potential short-term disturbance factors. The market is also affected by factors such as the weakening of the US labor market and the slowdown of inflation [3]. Forestry and Agricultural Products Series - Pulp: The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening and demand improvement uncertain. Prices are expected to consolidate [6]. - Logs: The log market is expected to be range-bound, with limited supply pressure and uncertain peak season demand. The spot market price is relatively stable, and the cost support remains [6]. - Oil and Fats: The oil and fat market is likely to be volatile in the short term, with overall raw material supply being relatively loose and demand being affected by policies and consumption upgrades. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean production area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Meals: The meal market is expected to rebound with the support of the external market, but the increase is limited by the expected increase in production. Attention should be paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - Live Pigs: The live pig market is expected to see a slight increase in prices next week, with support from school start-up demand and cost factors. The market is also affected by factors such as the supply and demand structure and inventory levels [7]. Chemical and Soft Commodities Series - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by supply shortages and inventory declines. The market is also affected by factors such as the impact of the approaching military parade on downstream operations and the overall strength of the commodity market [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a state of wait-and-see or volatile, with prices mainly following cost fluctuations. The markets are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply and demand relationships, and cost changes [10].