国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Iron ore: Subject to fluctuating macro - expectations, it will experience wide - range oscillations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Due to rapid inventory accumulation, steel prices will oscillate and correct [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: With poor market sentiment, they will show weak oscillations [2][9]. - Coke and coking coal: They will experience wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Logs: They will show repeated oscillations [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price of iron ore (12601) was 766.0 yuan/ton, down 21.5 yuan/ton (-2.73%), and the position decreased by 19,658 hands. Among spot prices, the price of imported ore such as PB (61.5%) dropped by 14.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices rose. The basis and spreads also changed [4]. - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength is 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,039 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-2.19%), and the position decreased by 196,302 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,320 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton (-1.37%), and the position decreased by 85,585 hands. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the basis and spreads changed [6]. - Macro and Industry News: In the week of August 28, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, and inventory increased by 16.35 tons; hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.5 tons, and inventory increased by 4.02 tons. In mid - August, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed [7][8]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also decreased. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [9]. - Macro and Industry News: On September 1, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Some steel mills' procurement prices of ferrosilicon decreased. In July, South Africa's manganese ore exports increased [10][11]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) declined, with decreases of 32.5 yuan/ton (-2.8%) and 48.5 yuan/ton (-3.0%) respectively. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed [12]. - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [12]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of both coke and coking coal is 0 [12]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [15]. - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [17]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of logs is - 1 [17].