五矿期货贵金属日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the current personnel changes in the Federal Reserve and the statements of key figures, combined with the overall marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed will enter an interest - rate cut cycle that exceeds market expectations. There is a high probability that the Fed will conduct three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts in the next three interest - rate meetings, which will be a significant positive factor for precious metal prices. In the interest - rate cut cycle, silver will outperform gold, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline significantly. The current strategy is to buy silver on dips, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai Gold futures contract being 794 - 836 yuan/gram and for the main Shanghai Silver futures contract being 9526 - 10500 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.86% to 801.58 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 2.46% to 9836.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.08% to 3548.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.22% to 41.64 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.23%, and the US dollar index was 97.67 [2]. - Various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., showed different price and volume changes. For example, Au(T + D) rose 1.63% to 794.48 yuan/gram, and the London gold rose 1.33% to 3474.90 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Key Figures' Statements - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Fed should maintain its independence but has made many mistakes. He also mentioned that Director Milan will officially take office before the September interest - rate meeting [2]. 3.3 Market Data Statistics - Gold and silver data statistics include closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, etc., in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., and their daily changes and historical quantiles. For example, the closing price of the active COMEX gold contract rose 1.13% to 3516.10 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume rose 18.74% to 18.01 million lots [6]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided to show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold prices and the US dollar index, and the relationship between COMEX gold prices and real interest rates [8][11]. - Charts also show the near - far month structure of precious metals, such as COMEX gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, and the price differences between different markets, such as SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA [19][20][30][39]. - Charts present the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and COMEX silver and their relationships with prices, as well as the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs [47][49]. - Charts show the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including their five - day moving averages and seasonal charts [52][53][55].