尿素月报：出口提振但内需偏弱，价格承压运行-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of urea is likely to decline but the downside space is limited, with support at the 1700 price level. The reasons include high domestic production and operation rates, weak domestic demand, weak cost support, and the need to focus on the impact of export policies on prices [3]. - In the futures market, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [9]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Urea Trend Review - In August 2025, the domestic urea market was under pressure. Although export policies boosted market sentiment, they had limited impact on actual demand. The market's acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and prices generally showed a weak trend. The price trend can be divided into three stages: an initial rise followed by a fall, a continuous decline in the middle, and a short - term rebound followed by a weakening in the late stage [14]. Urea Supply New Capacity - From January to August 2025, multiple urea production facilities were put into operation, with a total new production capacity of 225 tons and a production capacity growth rate of 2.98%. It is estimated that the total new production capacity in 2025 will reach 494 tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55% [27]. Production and Operation - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea production was 5.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.10%. Although the daily production and operation rate decreased month - on - month due to increased maintenance plans, the overall supply remained high [31]. Urea Export - In July 2025, domestic urea exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a total export volume of 567,200 tons. In August, a third batch of export quotas was issued, with an estimated quantity of 700,000 - 1,000,000 tons. After adding this batch, the total export quota for the year exceeded 4 million tons [50]. - India conducted multiple urea import tenders in 2025, which had an impact on the international urea market [47][48]. Urea Demand Overall Demand - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea consumption was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.65%. It was the traditional off - season for agricultural demand, and both enterprise and port inventories increased, leading to a significant decrease in consumption [74]. Substitute Demand - There is a substitution relationship between urea and other fertilizers. Currently, urea has no obvious price advantage compared with ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride, but it has a cost - performance advantage compared with phosphate and potash fertilizers [76]. Agricultural Demand - August is the traditional off - season for domestic agricultural demand. In September, autumn fertilization will gradually start, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [123]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In August, compound fertilizer factories gradually started autumn fertilizer production, with a significant month - on - month increase in the operation rate. However, the shipment rhythm of autumn fertilizer preparation was slow, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate [124]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - In August 2025, the formaldehyde operation rate increased slightly week - on - week. Although domestic real - estate data was not good, plywood exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, which may support the demand for urea - formaldehyde resin [134]. Melamine Demand - In July 2025, the estimated melamine production was 135,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8.48%. The market was weak in the first half of the month and improved slightly in the second half, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak [140]. Urea Summer Storage - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has reduced the proportion of urea reserves, changed the requirements for targets, extended the storage period, adjusted the assessment indicators, and extended the delivery time [152][153][154]. Urea Inventory - In August 2025, urea enterprise inventories showed an overall accumulation trend, reaching 1.0858 million tons at the end of the month, an increase of 168,500 tons compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventories reached a high level in the same period of previous years due to the opening of export policies [166]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Supply forecast: The August production is adjusted according to actual production, and the September production forecast is adjusted according to maintenance plans. The daily production in September is expected to increase month - on - month. - Export forecast: The total export quota for the year exceeds 4 million tons, and this amount is evenly distributed to the second - half months. - In September, domestic agricultural demand will enter the autumn fertilizer - preparation stage, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [169].