国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and news may stimulate market sentiment [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices will move in a narrow - range oscillation [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: Some trade - in programs are suspended, and the weak oscillation will continue [2][11] - Industrial silicon: It is advisable to short at high prices [2][14] - Polysilicon: Spot quotes are rising, and the market volatility is increasing [2][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950, with changes of 135 compared to T - 1, 70 compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the main contract was 164,893, with corresponding changes [5] - Macro and Industry News: Multiple events occurred, including potential nickel export suspension from Canada to the US, a nickel - iron project in Indonesia entering trial production, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesian mining policies, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron plants, and a steel mill in Shandong reducing production [5][6][7][8] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 75,540, with a decrease of 1,460 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also showed significant changes [11] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and the car "replacement and renewal" subsidy policy in Guangzhou was suspended [12][13] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,495, up 105 compared to T - 1. The PS2511 contract also had corresponding price and volume changes. There were also data on prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon [15] - Macro and Industry News: Yunnan implemented a new policy on the market - based reform of new - energy on - grid electricity prices [15][17] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and for polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17]