Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has raised market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovish stance of Powell at the global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor have pushed up these expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks. The overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support the recovery of total demand [7]. - Domestic: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recent demand - side policies in first - tier cities may increase trading volume, but the sustainability needs to be observed. After the important events in early September, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may play a more important role in asset pricing, especially for short - duration commodity assets [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. Political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovishness of Powell at the August global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor on August 25 have further pushed up these expectations. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level, and real wage growth is flat. Service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks [7]. - Domestic Macro: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. The "anti - involution" has led to better mid - stream profits in July. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size has narrowed to - 1.7%. First - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, but the overall policy strength is relatively weak, with more relaxation for new houses in suburban areas of core cities [7]. - Asset Views: Short - term market volatility may increase in early September in China. After important events, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support non - dollar assets [7]. 2. View Highlights Financial - Stock Index Futures: V - shaped rebound and high - level oscillation. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the decline of incremental funds [8]. - Stock Index Options: Hold bull spreads following the market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The yield curve steepens. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [8]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be considered. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. Black Building Materials - Steel: Supply - demand contradictions are accumulating, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - Iron Ore: Hot metal production is decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - Coke: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and supply is tightening. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: Supply is tightening, and there is no inventory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - Silicon Iron: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and attention is paid to cost adjustments. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - Manganese Silicon: Supply pressure is accumulating, and the futures market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - Glass: Supply is still increasing, and peak - season demand needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to spot sales [8]. - Soda Ash: Supply fluctuates slightly, and the expectation of oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to soda ash inventory [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - Alumina: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - Aluminum: Social inventory is slightly accumulating, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - Zinc: The decline in black - series prices has led to a decline in zinc prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - Lead: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [8]. - Stainless Steel: The continuous increase in nickel - iron prices has led to a correction in the stainless - steel futures market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [8]. - Tin: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously changing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The multi - empty game continues, and prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. - LPG: The cracking spread is stabilizing, and attention is paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of cost - side factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: Shandong spot prices have declined, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical tensions have met with an increase in warehouse receipts, and fuel oil prices first rose and then fell. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil prices and oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to crude oil prices [10]. - Methanol: Port inventory is accumulating, and olefin prices are falling. Methanol prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - Urea: Domestic supply and demand are mainly loose, waiting for the recovery of autumn demand and the release of exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the actual implementation of exports [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: The low - inventory fundamentals are competing with macro sentiment, and the downward support is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [10]. - PX: The market atmosphere has cooled, and there is insufficient upward support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - PTA: The terminal market atmosphere has cooled slightly, but the tight supply - demand situation still supports prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and the peak - season performance needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and unexpected device load reduction [10]. - Bottle Chip: Mainstream large - scale manufacturers continue to reduce production, and there is a possibility of further reduction. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected increases in bottle - chip enterprise production and a surge in overseas export orders [10]. - Propylene: It mainly follows PP fluctuations in the short term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - PP: The pressure of new production capacity is increasing, and PP prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Plastic: The fundamental support is limited, and plastic prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - PVC: The weak reality is suppressing, and PVC prices are running weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and caustic soda prices are oscillating temporarily. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [10]. Agriculture - Oils and Fats: There may still be a need for short - term adjustment, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: The release of state reserves has pushed down soybean meal prices, and point - price trading is expected to keep prices oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: Traders are pre - stocking, and sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - Pig: The supply is expected to be abundant, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - Rubber: The overall trend is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: It has rebounded to the previous high and is following the trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - Pulp: There is a differentiation between near - and far - term contracts, and the main pulp contract is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [10]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced positions, and cotton prices have declined within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to demand and inventory [10]. - Sugar: The driving force is downward, but the short - term downward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to imports [10]. - Log: The delivery pressure is still large, and log prices are weakly adjusting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [10].
中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌参半，新能源材料涨幅居前-20250902
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-02 03:12