集运指数（欧线）：震荡走势

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1st, the shipping market was affected by news that the US Court of Appeals ruled Trump's tariff increase illegal, and there was concentrated short - position reduction after the opening. The freight rate index SCFIS closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The overall market loading rate remains above the warning line, and shipping companies' profit margins are still considerable at the current FAK level, so they have no intention to increase the number of blank sailings. The freight rate center in the second week of September has dropped to around $2000 - 2100/FEU, and there may be a further reduction of $300 - 400/FEU in late September. The freight rate trend in October depends on the blank - sailing intensity [10]. - Subjectively, it is believed that the probability of the freight rate in October falling below the low of $1700/FEU in May is high, and the valuation of the 2510 contract may be below 1247.05 points. If the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of $1300 - 1600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of sailings, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [10]. - In terms of strategies, pay attention to the long - spread opportunities between the 12 - 04 and 02 - 04 contracts, and consider lightly going long on the 2512 contract around 1500 points [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - The container shipping index (European routes) showed strong performance yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1291.4 points, up 1.53%, with a reduction of 989 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1650.9 points, up 5.01%, with a reduction of 828 lots [8]. 2. Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS index closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, lower than expected, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, a decrease of 2.6%; the SCFI for the European route was $1481/TEU, a decrease of 11.2%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923/FEU, an increase of 17.0% [1]. 3. European Basic Port Freight Rates - In the second week of September, the freight rates for European basic ports remained in the range of $1900 - 2200/FEU, with an average FAK of about $2080/FEU, and the freight rate center for container volume/SPOT decreased by $100/FEU [9]. 4. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - In September, the number of blank sailings remained unchanged at 6, and there were no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity reached 298,000 TEU/week, a 6% decrease from August, significantly lower than the 14% decrease during the same period in 2024. In October, the number of pending voyages remained at 5, and there were 6 blank sailings. Without considering pending voyages, the average weekly capacity was 287,000 TEU/week [9]. - The overall market loading rate in late August was around 95%. Shipping companies generally relaxed restrictions on low - price contract bookings and special offers for large - volume shipments, which intensified price competition, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will continue until the end of September [9]. 5. Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of European routes stopped falling on September 10th. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the market gave back the "strike" premium on the first trading day after the holiday. Shipping companies successively announced price increases in November and December, with the peak freight rate occurring in the first week of December [11].