Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the long - term. The bond futures' conservative strategy is the curve steepening strategy, and the aggressive strategy can consider buying on dips in the short - term [11][12]. - The black commodities are expected to adjust prices in the short - term and maintain a volatile market in the medium - term. For iron alloys, focus on the long opportunity of the silicon iron 10 - contract and maintain the medium - long - term short - selling strategy for manganese silicon [16][17]. - For non - ferrous metals and new materials, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the alumina is recommended to be short - sold on rallies in the medium - term. The zinc price will oscillate downward, and the lithium carbonate will operate in a wide - range oscillation [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural products market, the cotton can be short - sold on rallies in the long - term, the sugar can be short - covered and observed, and the eggs' short positions can be closed on dips [28][30][34]. - In the energy and chemical industry, the crude oil can be short - sold on rallies, the fuel oil and asphalt prices will follow the oil price, and the plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [42][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - news - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit was held, and a series of important documents were approved. The personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy was implemented, and the land market volume and price declined in August. The US may declare a housing emergency, and the eurozone unemployment rate dropped to a record low. South Korea's exports increased in August [8][9]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to be mainly volatile in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the long - term. The A - share market was strongly volatile on Monday, and the PMI data showed a slight rebound but the manufacturing was still below the boom level [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The conservative strategy is the curve steepening strategy, and the aggressive strategy can consider buying on dips in the short - term. The funds were balanced and loose at the beginning of the month, and the market digested the PMI data [12]. Black Screw Steel and Iron Ore - The supply policy has limited impact on the steel market. The market may experience a situation where the peak season is not prosperous. The supply is expected to remain strong, and the price is expected to adjust in the short - term and oscillate in the medium - term [14][15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there is also downward pressure [16][17]. Ferroalloys - Focus on the long opportunity of the silicon iron 10 - contract, and maintain the medium - long - term short - selling strategy for manganese silicon. The current supply of both is in surplus [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be short - sold on rallies, and glass can be observed. The supply of soda ash is expected to increase, and the demand for glass is weak [18][19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, and alumina is recommended to be short - sold on rallies in the medium - term. The demand for aluminum is weak, and the supply of alumina is in surplus [21]. Shanghai Zinc - The zinc price will oscillate downward due to increasing supply and weak demand [22]. Lithium Carbonate - It will operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to decrease in September [23]. Industrial Silicon - It will oscillate, and the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is the core contradiction [24][25]. Polysilicon - The policy progress dominates the market. The short - term may be supported by the policy, but there is a contradiction between the policy expectation and the surplus fundamentals [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It can be short - sold on rallies in the long - term. The supply is low, the demand is weak, and it is affected by the macro and external cotton markets [28][29][30]. Sugar - It can be short - covered and observed. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the international market has both positive and negative factors [30][31][32]. Eggs - The short positions can be closed on dips. The supply pressure is high, and the market is in a game between weak reality and the expectation of culling old hens [34]. Apples - Consider buying on dips or the long 10 - short 01 positive spread strategy. The price of early - maturing apples is high - quality and high - price, and the inventory apples' price is stable [36]. Corn - Short the 01 - contract. The old - crop price is falling, and the new - crop has a certain expectation of a bumper harvest [38]. Red Dates - Observe. The price in the producing area is stable, and the price in the selling area is weak [39]. Pigs - Short the near - term contracts on rallies and consider long opportunities for the 01 - contract. The supply pressure is high in September, and the demand improvement is limited [39][40]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies. The supply is expected to exceed demand, and the price may decline [42]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term oil price is expected to be in the range of $65 - 70. The demand is affected by shipping and refinery raw material demand [44]. Plastics - Oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak [45]. Rubber - Consider buying on dips. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and there is a certain driving force for price increase [46]. Methanol - Consider reducing short positions. The port inventory is increasing, but there may be disturbances from the rumor of gas restrictions in Iran [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain an oscillating strategy. The spot price is rising, but the futures are affected by the warehouse receipt problem [48]. Asphalt - Follow the oil price and be stronger than oil. The demand is in the peak season, and the supply is expected to increase in September [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - Observe in the short - term and consider the PX positive spread strategy. The cost is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand structure of some products is expected to be optimistic [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations [52]. Urea - Maintain a strong - oscillating strategy. The futures price is difficult to fall due to export rumors [53]. Synthetic Rubber - Consider low - buying opportunities. The fundamentals are gradually improving, but the upward movement is restricted by the weak market sentiment [54].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250902
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-02 03:10