沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is almost certain, coupled with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning into a peak season and the low level of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, which may lead to a relatively strong upward trend in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Information Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,780, up 370 from the previous value; the trading volume was 78,481 lots, an increase of 7,420; the open interest was 180,644 lots, an increase of 6,818; the inventory was 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1,212 tons [2]. - SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price: On September 1, 2025, it was 79,900, up 510 from the previous value [2]. - London Copper: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,884, down 18; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 158,875 tons, a decrease of 158,875; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 86.27, down 6.01; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 172.11, down 13.12 [2]. - COMEX Copper: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.585, up 0.08; the total inventory was 277,843 tons, an increase of 4,076 [2]. Industry Information - Consumption and Production: Although the copper foil operating rate is objectively high recently, due to low consumer demand, it has limited support for the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises. In August, as the steel rod operating rate declined, the substitution effect of refined copper rod consumption was more obvious in Jiangxi enterprises, but other regions did not feel a significant boost. In August, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased only slightly by 0.28 tons, but affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and the expansion of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper has also decreased. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly by 5.25 tons and remain at a low level in October [2]. - Project Progress: The floating ship pumping station and back - water system, a key supporting project of the Mirador copper mine expansion project under Tongling Nonferrous Metals, completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards the full - scale completion and operation of the project. The Mirador copper mine is a landmark mining cooperation project between China and Ecuador under the Belt and Road Initiative [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic Supply: Due to policy influence, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper will also reduce their expansion. In addition, September will enter the intensive maintenance period, so the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline significantly, and remain at a low level in October [2]. - Import and Export: The restriction of high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may lead to a decrease in the domestic scrap copper production (import) in September. The import window of electrolytic copper is opening, which may increase the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper. The continuous arrival of imported copper has increased the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper; the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].