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尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250902
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-02 03:04

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend focusing on the opportunity to buy low on the 01 contract of urea futures, as the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the valuation of urea is not high. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: one is the expectation of renovation of old production facilities on the supply - side, and the other is the expectation of improved exports on the demand - side [1] Summary According to Relevant Data Urea Futures Prices - On September 1st, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1743 yuan/ton, 1784 yuan/ton, and 1670 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3 yuan/ton (-0.17%), -7 yuan/ton (-0.39%), and -9 yuan/ton (-0.54%) compared to August 29th [1] Domestic Spot Prices - On September 1st, the spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1700 yuan/ton, 1610 yuan/ton, 1720 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -20 yuan/ton, -10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and -20 yuan/ton compared to August 29th [1] Basis and Spread - On September 1st, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was -84 yuan/ton, a change of -13 yuan/ton compared to August 29th; the spread of 01 - 05 was -41 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - The upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively; the downstream prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1742 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1726 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1743 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 220274 lots [1]