成材：短期供应下降对价格影响有限

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term price fluctuations of finished products are large, and they operate in a volatile and weak manner. The price is mainly affected by fundamentals. Although supply has decreased due to pre - parade production restrictions, it is likely to resume after the parade, while downstream demand is unlikely to change substantially in the short term. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points from the Report Steel Production and Supply - As of September 1, 23 sample steel enterprises with 89 blast furnaces in Tangshan have carried out blast furnace shutdown and maintenance as planned. There are 16 newly - added blast furnaces for maintenance, and the rest are mainly for rotational maintenance and production reduction. The theoretical daily impact on hot metal output is about 122,300 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate is 74.62%, down 14.21% from August 27 and 10.35% from the same period last year. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. [2] - On September 3, production restrictions were implemented in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before the parade, leading to a decline in supply. However, supply is likely to resume after the parade according to market research. [2] Market and Policy - The Shanghai mortgage policy was implemented on September 1. The minimum interest rate for new first - home mortgages is 3.05%, and the minimum interest rate for new second - home mortgages is 3.09%. Second - home mortgage loans with an existing interest rate higher than 3.36% can be lowered to 3.36%. [2] Market Sales - In August, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight 1% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. It is almost certain that the annual sales will exceed 1 million. [2] Product Price - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday, with the rebar 2601 contract once falling below 3,100 and the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract falling below 3,300. [2] 4. Later Concerns - Macro - policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand. [3]