股指日报：短期上涨斜率预计放缓-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent spot market sentiment continues to heat up, especially in the ChiNext and growth sectors, which have reached new highs. The market is rising amidst divergence, and there are several short - term changes to note, including potential index weakness after sufficient chip turnover, the derivatives entering a defensive state, and significant sector differentiation. The report believes that factors such as the full release of domestic macro - risks and the start of the overseas interest - rate cut cycle support a long - term bullish view on stock indices, with short - term issues only related to the pace of increase. The market currently lacks the conditions for a fast - bull market. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Logic Summary - The spot market sentiment is warming up, especially in the ChiNext and growth sectors. Short - term changes include: the market rising amidst divergence with increased intraday pull - backs after trading volume exceeds 3 trillion; derivatives entering a defensive state with increased hedging demand; and significant sector differentiation with limited spread of the profit - making effect. The report is bullish on stock indices in the long - term and suggests short - term intraday long positions and waiting for further adjustments for long - term long positions. [3] 3.2 Operation Suggestions - Futures: Short - term long positions should set stop - loss and take - profit levels in a timely manner (consider daily closing). Long - term long positions should wait for further adjustments. - Options: The implied volatility of stock index options declined slightly yesterday. The absolute level of volatility is high, and the high - level oscillation may last for a long time. Investors with double - selling positions can take appropriate profits, and those holding until maturity need to be aware of potential margin fluctuations. [4] 3.3 Macro Stock Market Information 3.3.1 Policy and Social Data - The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st, and pilot banks and other institutions began accepting subsidy applications. - From July 1st to August 31st, the cumulative cross - regional population flow in the whole society reached 11.697 billion person - times, a year - on - year increase of 7%. Among them, the volume of self - driving trips on highways reached 8.7 billion person - times, accounting for 70% of the cross - regional population flow. [5] 3.3.2 Market Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed resilience and closed in the green. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.84%. The precious metals (+6.67%) and communication equipment (+3.99%) sectors led the gains, while the insurance (-2.32%) and banking (-1.09%) sectors lagged. More than 3,200 stocks rose, and 123 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a good profit - making effect. [5] 3.3.3 Technical Tracking - Short - term high - level divergence has emerged, and the upward momentum shows signs of weakening. In terms of trends, the four major stock indices have broken through their 2023 highs, and the daily and weekly lines maintain an upward trend, with the bullish signal continuing. [5] 3.3.4 Capital Flow - The trading volume of the A - share market remained flat yesterday, maintaining around 2.7 trillion throughout the day, a decline from last week. However, the trading heat is still at a historical high, and the short - term chip turnover rate is relatively fast. [5]