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北方华创(002371):长期增长轨迹稳健,无惧季节性波动影响,维持“买入”评级

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to 460 RMB, reflecting a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of 372.50 RMB [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 79 billion RMB for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3% due to seasonal fluctuations [1]. - The gross margin decreased to 41.3%, down 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower profit margins in the electronic components business [1]. - Net profit was 16 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%, with a net profit margin improvement to 20.5% [1]. - The company is strategically positioned in the domestic semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [1][7]. - Revenue is expected to grow by 32% and 26% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to achieve sales revenue of 39,473 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 31.7% [2]. - The gross margin is expected to be 41.8% in FY25E, with net profit projected at 7,297 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.6% [2]. - The company’s return on equity is forecasted to be 21.2% in FY25E [2]. Market Position and Growth - The company is expected to capture over 5% market share in the domestic semiconductor equipment sector, with total sales exceeding 210 billion RMB for the year [7]. - The company has expanded its product offerings through R&D and acquisitions, including entering the ion implantation equipment market and acquiring a stake in ChipSource [7]. - The sales of semiconductor equipment are anticipated to grow by approximately 50% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [7]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 460 RMB is based on a 35x P/E ratio for 2026, aligning with the historical average [7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 268,945 million RMB [3].