光大期货金融期货日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market oscillated and rose, with the Wind All - A index closing up 0.81% and a trading volume of 2.78 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all increased, and the stock index basis was significantly at a discount. The Fed's dovish stance and China's policy adjustments, such as housing and parenting subsidy policies, are expected to drive the A - share market. The liquidity market is expected to continue, with funds concentrating on index components and technology - style stocks, and short - term fluctuations may increase while there is long - term upward momentum [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with gains across different tenors. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. In August, the bond market was suppressed by the rise of the equity market, but with long - term favorable factors for the bond market, the adjustment is basically in place. Short - term bonds are expected to remain stable, while long - term bonds may experience greater fluctuations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed an upward trend, with the CSI 1000 index rising 0.84%, the CSI 500 index rising 0.94%, the SSE 300 index rising 0.6%, and the SSE 50 index rising 0.16%. The stock index basis was deeply at a discount, and the IM2509 was at a discount of 120 points, indicating strong hedging demand. The Fed's dovish attitude and China's policy adjustments, including housing and parenting subsidy policies, are beneficial to the A - share market. The liquidity market will continue, with funds concentrating on specific stocks, and short - term volatility may increase while long - term upward potential exists [1] Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with gains: the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.30%, 0.17%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. In August, the bond market was affected by the rise of the equity market, but long - term factors are favorable for the bond market. Short - term bonds are expected to be stable, while long - term bonds may fluctuate more [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH decreased by 0.4 points (-0.01%), IF increased by 4.4 points (0.10%), IC increased by 18.0 points (0.26%), and IM increased by 14.0 points (0.19%) [3] Stock Indexes - The SSE 50 index increased by 4.7 points (0.16%), the SSE 300 index increased by 27.0 points (0.60%), the CSI 500 index increased by 66.3 points (0.94%), and the CSI 1000 index increased by 62.5 points (0.84%) [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS increased by 0.018 points (0.02%), TF increased by 0.08 points (0.08%), T increased by 0.19 points (0.18%), and TL increased by 0.36 points (0.31%) [3] Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.92, 1.31, 1.79, and 2.75 respectively [3] 3.3 Market News - As of August 29, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 83.56 billion yuan to 11409.26 billion yuan, and that of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange increased by 86.88 billion yuan to 10971.74 billion yuan. The total margin trading balance of the two markets increased by 170.44 billion yuan to 22381.00 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their respective basis [6][7][9][10][11] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the historical trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18] Exchange Rates - The report displays the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between different currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [21][22][23][25][26]