Dongpeng Holdings(SZ:003012) Great Wall Securities·2025-09-02 03:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company is focusing on deepening its retail channels, leading to continuous improvement in profitability and operational quality. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to reach 4.3 billion, 5.1 billion, and 6.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +30%, +20%, and +22% [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: The company reported a revenue of 7,773 million in 2023, with a projected decline to 6,469 million in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to 6,485 million in 2026 and reaching 7,042 million by 2027. The year-on-year growth rates are 12.2% for 2023, -16.8% for 2024, and expected to be 5.4% and 8.6% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [1][9]. - Net Profit: The net profit for 2023 is 720 million, with a significant drop to 328 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 426 million in 2025, 512 million in 2026, and 626 million in 2027. The year-on-year growth rates are 256.6% for 2023, -54.4% for 2024, and expected growth of 29.7%, 20.2%, and 22.2% for the following years [1][9]. - ROE: The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 9.2% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 7.4% by 2027 [1][9]. - EPS: The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease from 0.62 in 2023 to 0.28 in 2024, then recover to 0.54 by 2027 [1][9]. - P/E Ratio: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.1 in 2023, increasing to 26.5 in 2024, and then decreasing to 13.9 by 2027 [1][9]. Operational Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue due to a drop in the engineering channel, while the retail channel saw a growth of approximately 6%. The retail segment's revenue for the first half of 2025 increased by 5.94%, with high-value product revenue growing by 19.51% [1][2]. - The company has successfully secured a supply partnership with Beike for home decoration tiles, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market presence in the home improvement sector [1][2]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company achieved a gross margin of 30.33% and a net margin of 7.45% in the first half of 2025, with net profit margin showing a year-on-year increase of 0.68 percentage points. Operating cash flow saw a significant increase of 92.99% year-on-year, indicating effective cost management and improved cash collection [2].