白糖：等待消息指引

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The sugar market is waiting for news guidance, with the trend intensity of sugar being neutral [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 16.34 cents/pound, down 0.16 cents year-on-year; the mainstream spot price is 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year; the futures main contract price is 5,609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year-on-year [1] - The 91 spread is 14 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan year-on-year; the 15 spread is 39 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan year-on-year; the mainstream spot basis is 331 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan year-on-year [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - evaluated; India's monsoon precipitation is 6.7% higher than the long - period average (LPA) on September 1st; Brazil exported 3.59 million tons of sugar in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease; China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC expects China's sugar production in the 24/25 season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sold 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7% [2] - As of the end of July in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons; in the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3] - As of August 1st in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX at 52.06%, an increase of 2.93 percentage points year - on - year [3] - ISMA/NFCSF expects India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 34.9 million tons, compared to 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season, an increase of 5.4 million tons [3] - OCSB data shows that Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral view in the range of [-2, 2] where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]