生猪：缩量涨价，等待持续性印证

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - At the end of the month and the beginning of the new month, large - scale pig - producing groups significantly reduced their supply, and the spot price realized the market's expectation of a rebound. There is still supply pressure in September, and from September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate. It is advisable to engage in a 11 - 1 reverse spread. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, the price decline has accelerated, and the cost of slaughtering from March to May will decrease. Attention should be paid to the downward shift of the far - end central price, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,230 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,650 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton year - on - year. For futures, the price of the live hog 2511 contract is 13,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live hog 2601 contract is 13,840 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live hog 2603 contract is 13,110 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the live hog 2511 contract is 30,523 lots, an increase of 7,668 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 75,464 lots, an increase of 1,828 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the live hog 2601 contract is 14,130 lots, an increase of 1,745 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,478 lots, an increase of 165 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the live hog 2603 contract is 4,194 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,211 lots, an increase of 439 lots [1]. - Price Spreads: The basis of the live hog 2511 contract is 605 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live hog 2601 contract is 390 yuan/ton, up 480 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live hog 2603 contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the live hog 11 - 1 contracts is - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the live hog 1 - 3 contracts is 730 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].