棉花：维持震荡偏强走势

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that the cotton market will show a fluctuating and moderately strong trend [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The cotton market is expected to maintain a fluctuating and moderately strong trend. The overall trading of cotton spot is average, and the basis remains relatively stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is also general, and the order volume of the cotton fabric market has limited growth [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2601 was 14,025 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.51% and a night - session closing price of 14,085 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.43%. The trading volume was 685,282 lots, an increase of 1,815 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 715,524 lots, a decrease of 39,312 lots. The closing price of CY2511 was 20,020 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.60% and a night - session closing price of 20,065 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.22%. The trading volume was 11,403 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 23,962 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The closing price of ICE US Cotton 12 was 66.53 cents/pound [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 249 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 with an increase of 74 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,277 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.36%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,973 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.38%. The price in Shandong was 15,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan compared to the previous day, an increase of 1.11%. The price in Hebei was 15,456 yuan/ton, an increase of 148 yuan compared to the previous day, an increase of 0.97%. The 3128B index was 15,479 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan compared to the previous day, an increase of 0.99%. The international cotton index M was 74.16 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent compared to the previous day, a decline of 0.92%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton with no change, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan compared to the previous day, a decline of 0.39% [1] - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 increased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: According to TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot was average, and the basis remained relatively stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3.5 was CF01 + 1150 - 1450 [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was general, the sales of spinning mills slowed down, and the market sentiment was more cautious. The price remained stable, and the quotations of spinning mills changed little. The peak - season feeling in the all - cotton fabric market was not obvious, the order volume of weaving factories increased limitedly, the export orders in August recovered, but the subsequent increase was limited. The improvement of domestic orders was not ideal, and a certain proportion of machines in small and medium - sized factories still produced spot goods. Weaving factories mainly focused on sales, and the willingness to hold prices was not strong [2] - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures were closed due to a holiday [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]