Soochow Securities·2025-09-02 04:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for FY2026Q1 reached RMB 247.65 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.7%, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of RMB 253.17 billion. Excluding disposed businesses, the same-caliber revenue grew by 10% year-on-year [12][29] - Adjusted net profit for the same quarter was RMB 33.51 billion, down 17.6% year-on-year but up 12.3% quarter-on-quarter, also below the consensus estimate of RMB 38.44 billion [12][29] - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to RMB 140.07 billion, with customer management revenue reaching RMB 89.25 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year [18][29] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue significantly exceeded expectations, growing by 26% year-on-year to RMB 33.398 billion, driven by increased adoption of AI-related products [21][29] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for FY2026Q1 was RMB 247.65 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% [12] - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue reached RMB 140.07 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [18] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to RMB 34.741 billion, primarily driven by strong performance in cross-border business [21] Profitability Analysis - Adjusted EBITA margin for the Chinese e-commerce group was 27%, down 21% year-on-year, mainly due to investments in "Taobao Flash Sale" and user experience [18] - Adjusted net profit for FY2026Q1 was RMB 33.51 billion, down 17.6% year-on-year [12][29] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 to RMB 120.96 billion, RMB 173.84 billion, and RMB 222.29 billion, respectively [29] - Corresponding PE ratios (Non-GAAP) for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected to be 17, 12, and 9 times [29]