苯?烯累库幅度超预期，能化整体延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, with most being advised to be treated with a "sideways" approach, suggesting an overall "sideways" view for the oil - chemical industry [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic energy and chemical products continue to trade sideways. Some products like asphalt are strong, while others such as styrene are facing significant inventory pressure and are declining [2][3]. - The supply pressure in the crude oil market persists, and the price is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production policies [4][9]. - For each product, specific factors such as inventory levels, production, demand, and geopolitical events are driving their price movements and market trends [4]. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Supply pressure continues, and the price is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias. Geopolitical disturbances should be closely monitored [4][9]. - Main Logic: OPEC+ production increases lead to a hard - to - reverse oversupply expectation. US production shows resilience, and future crude oil inventories face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ accelerated production increases. Geopolitical events like Houthi attacks on oil tankers support the geopolitical premium [9]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: Geopolitical premium drives the asphalt futures price to break through the 3500 pressure level [10]. - Main Logic: Concerns over potential US sanctions on Venezuela and the interruption of asphalt raw material supply drive up the futures price. However, the narrowing supply - demand gap and weak demand suggest that the high valuation of asphalt may not be sustainable [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Follows the upward movement of crude oil [4]. - Main Logic: Geopolitical events in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela increase the geopolitical premium. However, factors such as increased inventory and weak demand limit its upward potential [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Follows the sideways movement of crude oil [4]. - Main Logic: Faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. It has a low valuation and is expected to move with crude oil [12]. Methanol - Viewpoint: There is still an expectation of shutdowns in the far - month contracts, and the futures price rebounds [4]. - Main Logic: The market experiences a decline followed by a rebound. Supply recovery and weak demand lead to the initial decline, while far - month shutdown expectations drive the rebound. The downstream olefin fundamentals provide limited support [28]. Urea - Viewpoint: The market is currently weak but is expected to strengthen after the Indian tender is finalized [4]. - Main Logic: The market is waiting for the Indian tender. Once it is finalized, factors such as supply reduction, expected increase in autumn demand, and potential export opportunities are expected to drive the price up [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Viewpoint: The arrival volume in early September is low, and there is still room for a decline in port inventory [4]. - Main Logic: With less volume arriving at ports in early September, port inventory continues to decline. Cost support is weak, but low inventory provides some price support [20][21]. PX - Viewpoint: The delayed restart of the plant has limited positive effects. Macroeconomic and cost factors are the main disturbances [4]. - Main Logic: Cost support is insufficient, and the supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term due to plant restarts and new capacity. Downstream demand provides limited support [14]. PTA - Viewpoint: The delayed restart of the plant and mediocre demand result in limited price drivers [4]. - Main Logic: Cost support is weak, and the delayed restart of the plant has limited positive effects. The overall supply - demand pattern is okay, and the price is expected to follow cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations [15]. Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the demand needs further verification [4]. - Main Logic: The price follows the movement of upstream costs. Supply remains high, and some plants are planning to restart. Downstream demand is average, and the sustainability of demand needs to be observed [22][23]. Bottle - Chip - Viewpoint: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary [4]. - Main Logic: The cost is fluctuating, and the supply - side plant maintenance supports the market. However, downstream demand is weak, and the price mainly follows cost fluctuations [23][26]. PP - Viewpoint: The support from maintenance is limited, and it trades sideways with a downward bias [4]. - Main Logic: News of plant overhauls has limited real impact. Supply continues to increase, and although there is some improvement in demand, the overall outlook is still weak [32][33]. Propylene (PL) - Viewpoint: Temporarily follows the movement of PP [4]. - Main Logic: External supply is restricted, and downstream demand is good. The price mainly follows PP in the short term, and the PP - PL processing fee is a key focus [33]. Plastic - Viewpoint: Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, and it trades sideways in the short term [4]. - Main Logic: News of plant overhauls has limited real impact. The price is affected by oil price fluctuations, macro - sentiment, and supply - demand factors. It is necessary to monitor downstream demand [30][31]. Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The port will resume inventory accumulation, and the price trades sideways with a downward bias [4]. - Main Logic: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the supply of naphtha is expected to tighten. However, the increase in pure benzene imports and weak downstream demand suggest a potential supply - surplus situation [16][19]. Styrene - Viewpoint: The inventory pressure is prominent, and the price continues to decline [4]. - Main Logic: The decline is due to the weakening of anti - over - competition sentiment and the poor fundamentals. High inventory levels and weak demand in the downstream market contribute to the price drop [19][20]. PVC - Viewpoint: Weak market conditions suppress the price, and it trades weakly [4]. - Main Logic: Macro - policies have not been implemented, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Factors such as reduced production in September, weak demand, and potential anti - dumping measures affect the price [36]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The spot price rebound slows down, and the market is on the sidelines for now [4]. - Main Logic: Macro - policies have not been implemented, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, factors such as the expected increase in alumina production in the future and the current slowdown in the spot price rebound lead to a wait - and - see attitude [36][37]. 4. Product Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - Period Spread: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each product [38]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product show the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [39]. - Inter - Product Spread: The inter - product spread data reflect the relative price relationships between different products, which can be used for arbitrage analysis and market trend judgment [41]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread data for specific products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., which help in analyzing the price relationships and market trends of these products [42][55][67].