鸽派预期主导贵?属突破

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rise of precious metals on September 1st was driven by macro - policy expectations and political risks. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and concerns about the Fed's independence boosted the prices of gold and silver. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions in the market [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Price Performance - On September 1st, gold and silver prices rose significantly. The Shanghai gold main contract rose 2.08% intraday, the COMEX gold price hit a record high, and the London spot gold price approached $3500 per ounce. The Shanghai silver main contract soared 4.16%, and both COMEX silver and London silver reached their highest levels since 2012 [3]. B. Driving Factors - The rise was due to dual drivers of macro - policy expectations and political risks. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the market's expectation of a restarted interest - rate cut cycle in September. Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Chair Cook and control the Fed raised concerns about central - bank independence, enhancing the safe - haven appeal of precious metals. Also, the US Geological Survey's plan to list silver as a critical mineral led to tariff concerns, boosting silver's performance [3]. C. Market Outlook - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high [3]. D. Key Data to Watch - In the coming week, focus on US labor - market data, ISM manufacturing and services PMI data. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [6]. E. Index Performance - On September 1st, the commodity index was 2212.10 (-0.02%), the commodity 20 index was 2466.23 (+0.08%), and the industrial products index was 2227.31 (-0.73%). The precious metals index on September 1st had a daily increase of 2.63%, a 5 - day increase of 3.10%, a 1 - month increase of 4.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.38% [43][45].