LPG：供需维持宽松，关注成本变动，丙烯：现货价格支撑仍在，关注回落风险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of LPG remains loose, and attention should be paid to cost changes [1] - The spot price of propylene still has support, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - LPG Futures Prices: PG2510 closed at 4,392 yesterday with a - 0.43% daily increase, and 4,426 in the night session with a 0.77% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,308 yesterday with a - 0.37% daily increase, and 4,344 in the night session with a 0.84% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,423 yesterday with a 0.22% daily increase, and 6,419 in the night session with a - 0.06% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,447 yesterday with a 0.09% daily increase, and 6,464 in the night session with a 0.26% increase [1] - LPG Positions and Trading Volumes: PG2510's trading volume yesterday was 85,463, a decrease of 11,933 from the previous day, and the position was 77,824, a decrease of 7,591; PG2511's trading volume was 22,324, an increase of 1,869, and the position was 35,102, an increase of 1,953; PL2601's trading volume was 5,133, an increase of 4,067, and the position was 6,835, an increase of 1,740; PL2602's trading volume was 76, an increase of 71, and the position was 849, with no change [1] - LPG Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 138 yesterday, compared with 189 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 138 yesterday, compared with 189 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 192 yesterday, compared with 166 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 127 yesterday, compared with 141 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 52 yesterday, compared with 66 the previous day [1] - Industry Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, compared with 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged; the alkylation operating rate was 49.6%, compared with 49.0% before [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5] 3.3 Market Information - On September 1, 2025, the October CP paper - cargo price of propane was 534 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 508 US dollars/ton. The November CP paper - cargo price of propane was 539 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting PDH device maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; and many other companies with similar situations [7] - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, including Shengli Oil Refinery in Shandong with a 70 - day maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, and many other factories with different maintenance schedules [7]