债市周观察：债市逆风中等待转机

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market is likely to maintain the current stock - bond performance, and the headwind period for the bond market is not over yet [3][25] - The relatively weak PMI data in August and the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may lead to further loosening of the domestic aggregate policy in the fourth quarter [3][25] - After the two major macro - events in September (domestic military parade and whether the Fed cuts interest rates) are settled, the bond market may enter a favorable period at the end of September and in the fourth quarter [3][25] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week Data Review - Funds Rate: DR001 was basically at 1.32% from August 25th to 29th, down about 9BP from last week, and closed at 1.33% on August 29th; R001 first decreased and then increased, closing at a weekly high of 1.42% on August 29th. DR007 hovered around 1.51% from August 25th to 29th and closed at 1.52% on August 29th. FR007 dropped 4BP from 1.58% on August 25th to 1.54% on August 26th and returned to 1.52% on August 29th [8] - Open - Market Operations: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放 volume reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with a total maturity volume of 2122 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 166.1 billion yuan, the smallest net injection this month [8] - Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread narrowed. The US 6 - month SOFR rate slightly rose from 4.04% on August 25th to 4.02% on August 29th; the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.61%. As of August 29th, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 241BP, and the inversion narrowed slightly. The 2 - year/10 - year spreads were - 218BP and - 239BP respectively, with the long - and short - end spreads narrowing slightly [18] - Term Spread: The term spread of Chinese bonds slightly widened, while that of US bonds gradually narrowed. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.40%, and the 10 - year was 1.84%, with a 10 - 2 - year spread of 43BP. The US bond yield fell slightly, with the 2 - year yield down 14BP to 3.59% and the 10 - year down 5BP to 4.23%, and the 10 - 2 - year spread widened to 64BP [18] - Interest Rate Term Structure: The Chinese bond yield curve shifted upward, and the US bond yield curve shifted slightly downward. Except for the 10 - year Chinese bond yield rising 7BP, the overall change was small. The 3 - month and 2 - 3 - year yields decreased by 1 - 2BP, and the 1 - year and 5 - year yields rose 1BP. The US bond yield decreased by more than 5BP overall, with the 2 - year yield down 14BP (the largest decline) and the 3 - 5 - year yields down 10BP [19] 2. Real Estate High - Frequency Data Tracking - First - Tier Cities: The overall transaction volume of commercial housing in first - tier cities remained low and volatile. The average daily transaction area was 61,400 square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was 544 units. August 29th was the weekly high, with a transaction area of 73,200 square meters and 640 units, also the highest in the past two weeks; August 25th was the weekly low, with a transaction area of 56,400 square meters and 500 units [26][27] - Ten Major Cities: The transaction data of commercial housing in ten major cities rebounded compared with last week. The average daily transaction area was about 113,900 square meters, an increase of 19,000 square meters per day compared with last week. In 2021, the average daily transaction area was about 254,900 square meters [27] - 30 Large and Medium - Sized Cities: The transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 240,000 square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was about 2225 units. August 28th was the weekly peak [27]