镍：基本面逻辑窄幅震荡，消息面刺激情绪，不锈钢：钢价窄幅震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are in a narrow - range oscillatory state, with the trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel being neutral [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,450, with a change of 1,750 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,950, with a change of 135 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 171,897, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 164,893 [2]. - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 123,575, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (factory price) is 942, and the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,100 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Supply - side News: In March 2025, Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. In April 2025, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron. In 2025, an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to reduce the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metric tons [2][3][4][5]. - Policy - related News: In 2025, Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget starting from October 2025. The Indonesian government has approved a 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production of 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target of 3.19 billion tons [4][5]. - Environmental News: Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire industrial park. The Indonesian president stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [3][6]. - Domestic Steel Mill News: Due to the provincial steel mill's annual production reduction target of 5%, a steel mill in Shandong started maintenance, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coils and suspending the delivery obligations of long - term supply agreements signed in August 2025 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [7].