螺纹钢：库存累积过快，钢价震荡回调

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils has accumulated too quickly, leading to a volatile correction in steel prices [1] - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coils is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] Group 3: Specific Data Summaries Futures Data - The closing price of RB2510 was 3,039 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton or 2.19% [1] - The closing price of HC2510 was 3,320 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton or 1.37% [1] - The trading volume of RB2510 was 675,240 lots, and the open interest was 859,408 lots, a decrease of 196,302 lots [1] - The trading volume of HC2510 was 245,512 lots, and the open interest was 574,221 lots, a decrease of 85,585 lots [1] Spot Price Data - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1] - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 30 - 60 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Tangshan billet decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread Data - The basis of RB2510 increased by 31 yuan/ton to 211 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of HC2510 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton to -76 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 16 yuan/ton to 281 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 188 yuan/ton [1] - The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News Data - On August 28, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 0.5 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 6.55 tons [2] - The total inventory of rebar increased by 16.35 tons, hot-rolled coils increased by 4.02 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 26.84 tons [2] - The apparent demand for rebar increased by 9.41 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.55 tons, and the total apparent demand for five major varieties increased by 4.78 tons [2] - In mid-August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons, a daily increase of 2.0% [3] - They produced 19.24 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.924 million tons, a daily increase of 0.5% [3] - They produced 20.49 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.049 million tons, a daily increase of 2.2% [3] - The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.67 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous ten-day period [3] - The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a 4.83% decrease from the previous month [3] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a 0.1% year-on-year increase [3]