碳酸锂日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 2.73% to 75,560 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 78,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 1,300 yuan/ton to 76,050 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 250 yuan/ton to 76,650 yuan/ton. The warrant inventory increased by 1,310 tons to 31,197 tons [3]. - According to the semi - annual report of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. on August 29, the overall progress of its 40,000 - ton/year lithium salt project reached 71%. The adsorption lithium extraction device completed the intermediate handover acceptance on June 3. It is expected that the project will start trial production by the end of September, and the company will achieve a production scale of 80,000 tons/year of lithium salt [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. The weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 37 tons to 2,515 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 9 tons to 1,766 tons. In terms of demand, according to the production scheduling data of market consulting agencies, the production scheduling of cathode materials in September increased by 5 - 6% month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, decreasing by 407 tons to 141,136 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 1,293 tons to 52,800 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 45,000 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 43,336 tons. The downstream and intermediate links showed signs of replenishing inventory, while the upstream continued to destock [3]. - Last week, news - related factors led to a rapid decline in prices, digesting part of the increase caused by the shutdown of Jianxiawo. The market may re - price the expectations regarding mining permits. Currently, considering the potential disturbing factors on the supply side, the relatively firm price of lithium ore, and the booming demand, the downside space may be limited, and the price may show wide - range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to September 30, when Jiangxi lithium ore projects need to complete report compilation and submission. By then, there may be a conclusion regarding the mining permit issues of other projects [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 77,180 yuan/ton on August 29 to 75,560 yuan/ton on September 1, a decrease of 1,620 yuan/ton. The closing price of the continuous contract dropped from 77,000 yuan/ton to 75,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 US dollars/ton to 898 US dollars/ton. The prices of lepidolite (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%, Li₂O: 7% - 8%) decreased to varying degrees [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,200 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton. The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to - 1,700 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 288 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of ternary precursors 523 (polycrystalline/power type), 523 (single - crystal/consumer type), 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), and 811 (polycrystalline/power type) increased to varying degrees. The prices of ternary materials 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type), 523 (single - crystal/power type), and cobaltous acid lithium decreased, while the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) and 811 (power type) remained unchanged. The prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage), and lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) decreased, while the prices of lithium manganate (power type) and lithium manganate (capacity type) remained unchanged [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.01 yuan/piece, the price of cobaltous acid lithium cells increased by 0.2 yuan/Ah, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 0.001 yuan/Wh. The prices of other cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Includes charts of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF) and lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%) and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) prices, showing price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Covers charts of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, presenting price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [11][13][14]. - Price Spreads: Comprises charts of price spreads such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and others, showing price spread trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [17][18][19]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Includes charts of ternary precursor, ternary material, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltous acid lithium prices, demonstrating price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [24][26][28]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Covers charts of 523 square ternary cell, square lithium iron phosphate cell, cobaltous acid lithium cell, and square lithium iron phosphate battery prices, showing price trends from January 2024 to August 2025 [30][33]. - Inventory: Includes charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other - link inventory, showing inventory trends from January to August 2025 [37][39]. - Production Cost: Features a chart of production costs, including the cash production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate, showing profit trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [41][43].