集运日报：SCFIS跟随下跌盘面处于筑底过程基差收紧近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250902

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict and tariff fluctuations make the game difficult, suggesting light - participation or waiting and seeing [4]. - The overall freight rate is still declining, and the market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI flash was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI flash was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI flash rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024 [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the services PMI flash was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. 3.3 Trade and Policy - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try long positions lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or try lightly with small positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On September 1, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, down 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical Events - On August 31, the Israeli Defense Minister announced that the Israeli army killed the spokesman of the Hamas Qassam Brigades in the Gaza Strip, but Hamas has not confirmed this news. The Israeli army has been expanding military operations against Hamas [5]. - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea [5].