铁矿石：矿石价格补跌，短期跟随运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, affected by the continuous weakening of the finished product and coking coal futures prices, iron ore prices made up for the decline. The support on the supply side of iron ore has weakened, and the high - toughness on the demand side has been shaken. The relatively strong pattern may be broken, and it is expected that iron ore will continue to weaken with the sector in the short term [2][3] - The external macro - narrative is more positive, there are still expectations for increments in domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage, which support the medium - term valuation of the black series. In the short term, the terminal demand is weakening, the supply of iron ore is steadily rising, the demand is falling from a high level and the short - term strengthening expectation is weak. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance, and short - term iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and the price is expected to follow the sector [3] - The price fluctuates weakly in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (Contract 2601) is in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The shipment of foreign mines has continued to maintain a high growth rate. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipment has reached a five - year high, and the shipment level of non - mainstream mines has been higher than that of last year for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than that of last year. With the continuous arrival of shipments, the supply - side pressure is expected to gradually emerge, and the supply - side support continues to weaken [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has slightly declined, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.13 (a month - on - month decrease of 0.62). The profitability rate of steel mills is continuously falling, and the blast furnace profit is approaching the break - even point. With the military parade production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of the short - process steelmaking protects the iron ore demand to some extent, the support of domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ores at steel mills has declined but remains at a high level. The inventory at steel mills has decreased month - on - month due to more overhauls in North China. The port inventory has slightly declined this period. With the current high daily consumption and high pig iron output supporting demand, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is not significant [3]