Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue rising in the future, but the upside may be limited due to concerns about a US recession and high copper prices affecting downstream demand [1]. - Alumina is recommended to be sold on rallies, while electrolytic aluminum may have strong upward momentum in September, and there is room for the spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel prices are likely to continue to oscillate with an upward bias as the marginal improvement in nickel - iron and the new energy sectors becomes more evident [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated weakly. A rising gold price may indicate increased risk aversion and potential for copper value re - evaluation. Three factors to watch include the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season in China, and the implementation of anti - involution policies in some domestic industries. However, the US recession expectation and high copper prices may limit the upside of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. Alumina production resumption is increasing, and inventory is piling up. It is recommended to sell on rallies but be cautious about chasing the decline. Downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum may exceed expectations during the peak season, and the industry profit is shifting from upstream to downstream. There is room for the spread of aluminum alloy to repair [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. The demand for ternary materials in the new energy sector is increasing, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. First - grade nickel inventory decreased, and consumption increased significantly. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 79,830 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan/ton from August 29. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 73,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE copper inventories changed slightly [3]. Aluminum - On September 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the inventory of alumina decreased by 0.7 million tons [4][5]. Nickel - On September 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons [4][5]. Zinc - On September 1, 2025, the main settlement price of zinc increased by 0.5%. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 1, 2025, the main settlement price of tin decreased by 0.7%. The inventory of SHFE tin increased by 75 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those on spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME and SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][15]
有色商品日报-20250902
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-02 05:12