Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.14% to 66.53 cents per pound, and CF601 dropped 1.65% to 14,029 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 14,025 lots to 528,900 lots. The spot price index of grade 3128B cotton was about 15,175 yuan per ton, down 205 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, more attention should be paid to macro and weather changes. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high. As of the week ending August 26, the area affected by D1 - D4 level drought was 30%, up from 5% two weeks ago. According to NOAA forecasts, the drought in the main U.S. cotton - growing areas will continue. Currently, there are no obvious contradictions in the ON - CALL weekly report and non - commercial fund positions of U.S. cotton, and the willingness of funds to intervene is not strong. Domestically, there are many market news, but they are all short - term disturbances before substantial implementation. After a significant increase and then a significant decrease in positions in Zhengzhou cotton, the main concerns are the relatively warm macro - level sentiment and the country's obvious long - term intention to stimulate and promote consumption. The short - term fundamentals are relatively tight, and the supply will increase after the new cotton is listed, but the overall supply - demand contradiction in the new year is not significant. Overall, even though the 01 contract faces the pressure of a bumper harvest and large - scale listing of new cotton, it is expected to be relatively firm, and the 11 contract is expected to be weaker than the 01 contract [2]. - Sugar: In the first half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, an increase of 3.596 million tons or 8.17% year - on - year. The ATR of sugarcane was 144.83 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.34 kg/ton compared with the same period last year. The sugar - making ratio was 55%, an increase of 5.85 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Ethanol production was 2.193 billion liters, a decrease of 121 million liters or 5.21% year - on - year. Sugar production was 3.615 million tons, an increase of 497,000 tons or 15.96% year - on - year. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making group was 5,860 - 5,970 yuan per ton, with an individual reduction of 20 yuan per ton; the price of Yunnan sugar - making group was 5,730 - 5,780 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price range of processing sugar factories was 5,970 - 6,450 yuan per ton, with some reductions of 20 - 50 yuan per ton. The sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil reached a new high again. The futures price has been oscillating around 5,600 yuan per ton for 4 trading days, lacking a driving force, and should be treated with an oscillating mindset. Attention should be paid to the sales data of each province and import data in August [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 60, up 20; the main contract basis was 1454, up 366. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,392 yuan per ton, up 149, and the national spot price was 15,479 yuan per ton, up 151 [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, down 5; the main contract basis was 356, down 5. The spot price in Nanning was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 50, and the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,965 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On September 1, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,320, down 194 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0. The arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were 15,392 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,454 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,510 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,639 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 50, up 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 27.1, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 49.2, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 31.3, down 0.3 from the previous day [4]. - Sugar: On September 1, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,965 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 13,434, down 482 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 7 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of the main contracts, but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [7][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many industry - related honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won the title of senior analyst in textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [22].
光大期货软商品日报-20250902
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-02 05:12