沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is almost certain, combined with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning into the peak season, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory remaining at a low level, which may lead to a relatively strong upward trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,780, up 370 from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 78,481 lots, an increase of 7,420; the open interest was 180,644 lots, an increase of 6,818; the inventory was 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1,212 [2]. - SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price: On September 1, 2025, it was 79,900, up 510 from the previous trading day [2]. - LME 3 - month Copper Futures: On September 1, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 9,884, down 18 from the previous trading day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 158,875 tons, a decrease of 158,875 [2]. - COMEX Copper: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4.585, up 0.08 from the previous trading day; the total inventory was 277,843 tons, an increase of 4,076 [2]. Industry News - Consumption: Although the copper foil operating rate has been objectively high recently, limited by low consumer demand, it has limited support for the operating rate recovery of refined copper rod enterprises. In August, as the steel rod operating rate declined, the substitution effect of refined copper rod consumption was more obvious in Jiangxi enterprises, while enterprises in other regions did not feel obvious improvement [2]. - Production: In August, the domestic electrolytic copper output decreased slightly by 0.28 tons. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and the expansion of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper will also decrease. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper output in September will drop significantly by 5.25 tons and remain at a low level in October [2]. - Projects: The floating pontoon pumping station and return water system, a key supporting project of the expansion project of Mirador Copper Mine under Tongling Non - Ferrous Metals, have completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards full - scale completion and production [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Scrap Copper: European high - quality scrap copper is restricted from export, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, direct imports of US scrap copper by traders are sluggish. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, and the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September may decrease month - on - month, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation [2]. - Refined Copper: Domestic smelters' smelting and maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, and the domestic refined copper production (import) volume in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month. Some new projects are expected to be put into production in the future, which may affect the domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September [2]. Investment Strategy - Hold previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].