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波动或将扩大,把握市场节奏变化
China Post Securities·2025-09-02 05:15

Market Performance Review - A-shares continued to rise this week, with all major indices showing gains. The ChiNext Index had the best performance, rising by 7.74%, while the Sci-Tech 50 also continued its strong performance with a 7.49% increase [4][12] - There was a clear differentiation in market styles this week, with growth styles maintaining strong performance, while cyclical and consumer styles saw a significant reduction in gains compared to the previous week. Stability and financial styles turned negative [4][12] - The mid-cap index performed the best this week, while large-cap and small-cap styles saw a slowdown in gains compared to last week. Core assets represented by the "Mao" index and "Ning" combination also saw significant increases, with the Ning combination rising by 3.91% and the Mao index by 3.63% [4][12] Industry Analysis - The TMT sector continued to lead the market, with significant gains in communication (12.38%), non-ferrous metals (7.16%), and electronics (6.28%). The overall trend remains dominated by TMT [5][16] - Conversely, dividend stocks underperformed, with textiles and apparel (-2.87%), coal (-2.76%), and banking (-2.13%) lagging behind. The value proposition of dividend stocks continues to decline amid rising government bond yields and increased market volatility [5][16] Future Outlook and Investment Views - Market volatility is expected to increase, and investors should pay attention to changes in market rhythm. Despite reaching new highs, market fluctuations have intensified, indicating growing divergence after two months of a trend upward [5][31] - The options market has shown a significant increase in volatility expectations for the next 30 days, suggesting that some funds believe the trend may change and are using options for hedging and protection [5][31] - With the completion of mid-term report disclosures, the overall performance of A-shares is still in a bottom-seeking process, prompting a reassessment of the alignment between macro/micro environments and individual stock valuations [5][31] - In terms of asset allocation, individual stock alpha logic is preferred over industry beta logic, with a focus on valuation recovery opportunities in technology growth sectors. The TMT growth direction, represented by AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules, is expected to see valuation recovery opportunities [5][31]