农业策略：郑棉大幅减仓，棉价区间内回落

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating weakly [7] - Pigs: Oscillating at a low level [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - Cotton: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - Sugar: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - Oils and Fats: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - Protein Meal: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - Corn/Starch: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - Pigs: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - Natural Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - Synthetic Rubber: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - Sugar: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - Pulp: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - Logs: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - Oils and Fats: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - Protein Meal: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - Corn/Starch: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - Pigs: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - Natural Rubber: Macro - environment, weather [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - Cotton: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - Sugar: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - Pulp: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - Logs: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - Oils and Fats: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - Protein Meal: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - Corn/Starch: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - Pigs: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - Cotton: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - Sugar: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - Pulp: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - Logs: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]