国泰君安期货：所长早读-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with new orders supporting the expansion of manufacturing output, and domestic demand driving sales growth [7][8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices have risen significantly, and the market continues to be bullish on the unilateral trend of gold and silver, with gold expected to reach $3,600 per ounce and silver to reach $45 per ounce [9][10]. - Black commodities: Strong macro - expectations are fully priced, and the valuation is facing a test from fundamentals. Short - term fundamentals may limit the upward drive of black commodity valuations, but potential policy - related positive risks should be noted [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Market Performance: As of the latest data, COMEX silver reached a maximum of $41.76 per ounce, and COMEX gold reached $3,557 per ounce. SPDR Gold ETF had a weekly increase of 20.91 tons, and the net long - position ratio in the Shanghai gold market reached a record high [9][10]. - Driving Factors: Powell's dovish attitude towards interest rate cuts and the in - line PCE data have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts this year to 75bp. Technically, the breakthrough is the core driver of the upward movement [9]. 3.2 Black Commodities - Fundamental Situation: Inventory characteristics of various commodities may have shown signs of loosening, such as the inflection point of coking coal inventory, the slow start of iron ore port inventory accumulation, and the continuous accumulation of downstream steel product inventory. The expected resumption of production after the parade and high pig iron output may deepen inventory contradictions [11]. 3.3 Copper - Market Performance: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The spot price was firm due to a high premium [21]. - Macro and Industry News: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's August manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. Some copper mines and factories had production - related news such as maintenance completion and production resumption [21][23]. 3.4 Zinc - Market Performance: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,175 yuan, with a 0.16% increase. It is expected to trade in a range [24]. - Macro News: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, which had an impact on the market [25]. 3.5 Lead - Market Performance: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,855 yuan, with a 0.15% decrease. The continuous decrease in inventory supported the price [27]. - Macro News: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved [28]. 3.6 Tin - Market Performance: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 273,240 yuan, with a 1.94% decrease. It is expected to trade in a range [31]. - Macro and Industry News: There were various macro - level news such as the performance of the stock and futures markets and international events [32]. 3.7 Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Performance: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,645 yuan, and the Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3,008 yuan. The fundamentals of aluminum were weak, and alumina was in low - level oscillation [34]. - Comprehensive News: The ECB's inflation target and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI had an impact on the market [36]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Performance: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123,450 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan. They are expected to have narrow - range oscillations [37]. - Industry News: There were many news about nickel production in Indonesia, such as production suspension, quota adjustment, and environmental issues [37][38][39]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 75,540 yuan, and it is expected to continue its weak - oscillation trend due to the partial suspension of the "trade - in" program [43]. - Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the automobile "trade - in" subsidy policy in Guangzhou was adjusted [44][45]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Performance: The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,495 yuan, and the PS2511 contract of polysilicon closed at 52,285 yuan. Industrial silicon is recommended to short at high prices, and polysilicon's spot price increased with amplified market fluctuations [46][47]. - Industry News: Yunnan's new energy power - grid connection policy was released [47][48][49]. 3.11 Iron Ore - Market Performance: The 12601 contract of iron ore closed at 766 yuan, with a 2.73% decrease. It is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to repeated macro - expectations [50]. - Macro News: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [50]. 3.12 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Performance: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,039 yuan, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,320 yuan. The rapid inventory accumulation led to price oscillations and corrections [52]. - Industry News: There were data on steel production, inventory, and demand in August, and the manufacturing supply index decreased [53][54]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Performance: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures decreased, and the market sentiment was weak, with expectations of weak oscillations [56]. - Industry News: There were price and production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and South Africa's manganese ore export data [57][58]. 3.14 Coke and Coking Coal - Market Performance: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,118.5 yuan, and the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,594.5 yuan. They are expected to have wide - range oscillations [59]. - Macro News: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [59]. 3.15 Logs - Market Performance: Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [61]. - Macro News: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [64]. 3.16 Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Market Performance: The main contract of paraxylene closed at 6,866 yuan, PTA at 4,772 yuan, and MEG at 4,427 yuan. Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and PTA and MEG have trading strategies of long PTA and short MEG [65][66]. - Market News: There were price changes and trading situations of paraxylene and PTA in the Asian market, and the difficulty in contract price negotiations [67][68].