贵金属日评：欧元区经济增长预期表现良好欧洲央行表示通胀目标2%已达成-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate - cut expectation due to weak employment supply and demand, combined with Trump's continuous pressure and potential replacement of Fed officials, and central banks of many countries around the world continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data Shanghai Gold - Closing price: 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.78 compared to the previous value; trading volume: 37,086.00; open interest: 11,070.00; basis (spot - futures): - 1.79 [1]. Shanghai Silver - Closing price: 9752.00 yuan/ten grams; trading volume: 271,534.00; open interest: 3,508,944.00; basis (spot - futures): - 23.00 [1]. COMEX Gold Futures - Closing price: 3516.10, with a change of 132.60; trading volume: 180,059.00; open interest: 345,850.00; inventory: 38,925,852.75 gold - ounce [1]. COMEX Silver Futures - Closing price: 38.80 dollars/ounce; trading volume: 884,674.00; open interest: 262,870.00; inventory: 518,232,359.97 gold - ounce [1]. 2. Macro - economic Information Eurozone - In August, factory output growth reached the strongest level since March 2022, and the new order index expanded at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years. Germany's manufacturing FMI final value rose to 49.8, the highest in more than two years; France's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 [1]. - ECB President Lagarde said the 2% inflation target has been achieved and measures will be taken to maintain price stability. The acting governor of the Bank of Slovenia said the ECB's "easing cycle is over" [1]. United States - Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing the year - on - year rates of producer - side inflation PPI and consumer - side core CPI to rise in July. Fed Chair Powell said the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to weak employment supply and demand, making a September rate cut almost certain, but the non - farm payrolls and CPI data for August need to be watched on September 5th and 11th [1]. United Kingdom - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The year - on - year rates of CPI (core CPI) in July were 3.8% (3.8%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in August was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value, so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. Japan - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The year - on - year rates of CPI (CPI) in Tokyo in July (August) were 3.1% (2.6%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value (higher than expected but lower than the previous value), and the GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. With the US Treasury Secretary's urging, the Bank of Japan still has a rate - hike expectation by the end of 2025, and the earliest may be in October [1]. 3. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 810 - 850; for London silver, the support level around 34 - 37 and the resistance level around 41 - 43; for Shanghai silver, the support level around 9000 - 9400 and the resistance level around 10000 - 10500 [1].