Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-02 05:35Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is heating up, and the transition from the traditional off - season to the peak season in the domestic market supports aluminum prices [1]. - The domestic alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the rising cost may limit the downside of prices; the electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be cautiously bullish; the aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish [5][7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - Supply - side Changes: The construction of China Aluminum's bauxite mine and the start of the bauxite project in Qingzhen may reduce the domestic bauxite production and import in September. The domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the production may decrease in September. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic alumina import in September [4][21][39]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory in ports has decreased, while the total inventory has increased [17][34]. - Price and Cost: The bauxite price has increased, pushing up the alumina production cost. The average full - cost of alumina production is about 2890 yuan/ton [21][26]. - Investment Strategy: It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 2800 - 3000 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply - side Changes: Some domestic projects are expected to increase production capacity, but the overall production in September may decrease. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic import in September [6][65][68]. - Inventory Changes: The social inventory has increased, the bauxite inventory in ports has increased, and the inventory in LME has increased [51]. - Price and Cost: The theoretical weighted average full - cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16650 yuan/ton [65]. - Investment Strategy: It is recommended that investors go long on dips, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [7]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply - side Changes: The production of waste aluminum may increase, and the production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may increase in September. The import of unforged aluminum alloy may increase [9][80][91]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises' raw materials and finished products may increase [91]. - Price and Cost: The production of recycled aluminum alloy is close to loss, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - Investment Strategy: It is recommended that investors go long on dips for the main contract or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [9].