宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Over the past week, the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue has stalled or regressed, causing oil prices to decline slightly in a volatile market. The crude oil market remains in a state of multi - short stalemate, and the market is waiting for further clarity on the situation [2]. - After the hype of domestic PX device maintenance news, the price has returned to normal. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether PX profits can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors [2]. - PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, and social inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA production devices. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to when the positive feedback will occur [2]. - The PTA market has declined slightly. PTA spot inventory is decreasing, but the liquidity is sufficient, and the spot basis may continue to weaken. Although the PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, unplanned device maintenance is difficult to continuously boost prices [2]. - As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester production load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. At the beginning of the month, downstream polyester factories consume long - term PTA supplies and are not very active in purchasing PTA spot [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market remains stable. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate slightly, the supply - side quotations are mostly stable, and downstream terminals are cautious in their purchases [2]. - The current pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summaries by Categories Price Information - WTI crude oil futures settlement price (continuous) on August 29, 2025, was $64.01 per barrel, down 0.91% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price (continuous) on September 1, 2025, was $68.15 per barrel, up 0.04% [1]. - On September 1, 2025, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $596.25 per ton, down 0.19%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $683 per ton, down 1.23% [1]. - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) on September 1, 2025, was $848 per ton, down 0.08% [1]. - CZCE TA main - contract closing price on September 1, 2025, was 4,772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%; the settlement price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1]. - The spot price of PTA in the domestic market on September 1, 2025, was 4,728 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 4,727 yuan per ton, down 0.27% [1]. - CZCE PX main - contract closing price on September 1, 2025, was 6,866 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 6,854 yuan per ton, up 0.15% [1]. - The spot price of PX in the domestic market on September 1, 2025, was 6,738 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of PX (CFR Taiwan, China) on August 29, 2025, was $849 per ton, unchanged [1]. - CZCE PR main - contract closing price on September 1, 2025, was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,940 yuan per ton, down 0.24% [1]. - The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chip in the East China market on September 1, 2025, was 5,890 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; in the South China market, it was 5,960 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - CCFEI price indices of polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and short - fiber remained unchanged on September 1, 2025 [2]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22, 2025. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 - 23, 2025, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. Production and Sales Information - On September 1, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 82.59%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 72.55%, up 1.79%; the load rate of polyester factories was 87.99%, up 0.84%; the load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.32%, up 0.23%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, unchanged [1]. - On September 1, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 40.72%, down 0.90%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 38.79%, down 7.07%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 64.55%, down 13.21% [1] Trading Strategy - The cost support has been weakened. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,772 yuan per ton (- 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 527,800 lots; the PX2511 contract closed at 6,866 yuan per ton (0.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 161,400 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5,950 yuan per ton (- 0.07%), with an intraday trading volume of 50,400 lots [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2].