农产品日报：郑棉冲高回落，白糖延续震荡-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: Short - term domestic cotton supply is tightening, and with the arrival of the peak season and the possibility of a rush to purchase, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend before the large - scale listing of new flowers. Medium - term, due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the new year, the market will face pressure during the centralized listing period. If the peak season fails to meet expectations, there may be a decline [3]. - Sugar: Due to the low inventory of domestic sugar and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices, there is some support for Zhengzhou sugar prices, and the short - term decline space may be limited [6]. - Pulp: The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the industry chain lacks positive drivers. Short - term pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,025 yuan/ton, a change of - 215 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,392 yuan/ton, a change of + 149 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,479 yuan/ton, a change of + 151 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Recent market news: In July, Argentina exported 4,131 tons of cotton, a 17.9% decrease from the previous month and a 75% decrease year - on - year. From August 2024 to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative cotton exports were about 87,000 tons, a 26% decrease year - on - year [1]. Market Analysis - International: India extended the temporary tariff exemption period, which supported US cotton. In August, USDA significantly lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, changing the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the output adjustments of some production - increasing countries by USDA may not be in place. The supply - demand expectation of US cotton is expected to improve, but the slow export sales progress restricts the upside space. Short - term ICE US cotton may be difficult to break through the 65 - 70 cents oscillation range. - Domestic: The inventory reduction speed of domestic cotton is continuously fast, and the commercial inventory has dropped to a historical low. Although the sliding - scale tariff quota has been issued, it has not effectively solved the problem of tight cotton use in Xinjiang. The supply - tight pattern at the end of this year remains unchanged. With the arrival of the peak season, demand has improved marginally, providing strong support for domestic cotton prices. The new cotton is growing well, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is increasing. Although the pre - sale of new cotton is hot, there may be a rush to purchase in the early stage due to over - capacity of ginning factories. However, the hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new flowers will limit the upside of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Before the large - scale listing of new flowers, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend; in the medium - term, there may be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,609 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.09%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,825 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast in the central - southern region. Pakistan's purchase of 100,000 tons of sugar has boosted prices. However, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the production - increasing expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains unchanged, so there is limited upside space. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota imports has been high for several months, and the import volume in July increased significantly year - on - year. Processed sugar in August - September is expected to impact the domestic spot market, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Neutral. Due to low domestic sugar inventory and sugar mills' price - supporting intention, the short - term decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of + 22 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.44%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, due to the slow inventory reduction at ports and high inventory levels, the supply pressure of pulp remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is emerging. In China, affected by the traditional off - season, demand is weak, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement. Although there are plans to put into operation a large amount of finished paper production capacity this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Neutral. The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved, and short - term pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [9].